The solar cycle: predicting the peak of solar cycle 25

Du, Zhanle

doi:10.1007/s10509-020-03818-1

Cited by 22 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…Tan (2011) and Sarp et al (2018) show that solar cycle 25 is more active than the previous cycle and is more consistent with actual observations as predicted. Furthermore, Du (2020) estimated that the maximum peak of cycle 25 would be 30% stronger than that of cycle 24. These indicate that the activity would be high, and we use this advantage to track the intensity of early space weather events in the current cycle.…”

Section: Associated Space Weather Implicationmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Overview of Solar Radio Type II Bursts through analysis of associated solar and near Earth space weather features during Ascending phase of SC 25

Ndacyayisenga

Uwamahoro

Rabiu

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Abstract. Type II solar radio bursts are the signatures of particle acceleration caused by shock waves in the solar atmosphere and interplanetary space. Being electromagnetic radiation that travel at the speed of light, they can serve as ground observed data to provide early notice of incoming solar storm disturbances. An observational overview of 31 Type II bursts which occurred in the period between May 2021 to December 2022 is made. We analyzed associated parameters such as bandwidth, drift rates, starting frequency to evaluate their dynamical parameters such as the shock and Alfvén speeds to estimate the Alfvén Mach number as well as the coronal magnetic field strength using Rankine-Hugoniot relation. We also evaluated accompanying space weather implication in terms of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) enhancement. At heliocentric distance ∼ 1−2 R⊙, the shock and the Alfvén speeds are in the range 504–1301 km s−1 and 368–837 km s−1, respectively. The Alfvén Mach number is of the order of 1.2 ≤ MA ≤ 1.8 at the same heliocentric distance, and the magnetic field strength shows excellent consistency and could be fit with a single power-law distribution of the type B(r) = 6.56 r −3.92 G. The study finds that 15/31 type II radio bursts are associated with some aspects of space weather such as radio blackouts and/or polar cap absorption events, that are the signature of solar proton enhancement and solar energetic particle events. Observed and analyzed Type II events correlated well with observed ionospheric storm indicated by the TEC enhancement. The findings from this study indicate that through analysis of type II SRBs observed from the ground and their physical features characteristics, it is possible to monitor the current progress of solar cycle 25 and predict the intensity of associated space weather phenomena.

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Section: Associated Space Weather Implicationmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Overview of Solar Radio Type II Bursts through analysis of associated solar and near Earth space weather features during Ascending phase of SC 25

Ndacyayisenga

Uwamahoro

Rabiu

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…Among various indices to quantitatively describe geomagnetic activity, the aa index (Mayaud, 1972), derived from the 3-hourly K index at two near-antipodal midlatitude stations in England and Australia, is the longest time series (since 1868) and has been widely used to analyze the long-term trend of global geomagnetic activity (Russell and Mulligan, 1995;Marat et al, 2017;Du, 2011b;El-Borie et al, 2019) and its correlation with both climate change (Cliver et al, 1998;Dobrica et al, 2009;Gavrilyeva et al, 2017) and solar activity (Echer et al, 2004;Prestes et al, 2006;Lukianova et al, 2009;Du, 2011a, c;Du and Wang, 2012a;Singh and et al, 2019). The minimum aa index (aa min ), at or near the minimum of the solar cycle, has been widely used to predict the maximum amplitude of the sunspot cycle (R m ), the socalled Ohl's precursor method (Brown and Williams, 1969;Ohl and Ohl, 1979;Du et al, 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the maximum of the smoothed highest 3-hourly aa index in 3 d by the preceding minimum for the solar cycle

2020

Ann. Geophys.

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Abstract. Predicting the maximum intensity of geomagnetic activity for an upcoming solar cycle is important in space weather service and for planning future space missions. This study analyzed the highest and lowest 3-hourly aa index (aaH∕aaL) in a 3 d interval, smoothed by 363 d to analyze their variation with the 11-year solar cycle. It is found that the maximum of aaH (aaHmax) is well correlated with the preceding minimum of either aaH (aaHmin, r=0.85) or aaL (aaLmin, r=0.89) for the solar cycle. Based on these relationships, the intensity of aaHmax for solar cycle 25 is estimated to be aaHmax(25)=83.7±6.9 (nT), about 29 % stronger than that of solar cycle 24. This value is equivalent to the ap index of apmax(25)=47.4±4.4 (nT) if employing the high correlation between ap and aa (r=0.93). The maximum of aaL (aaLmax) is also well correlated with the preceding aaHmin (r=0.80). The maximum amplitude of the sunspot cycle (Rm) is much better correlated with high geomagnetic activity (aaHmax, r=0.79) than with low geomagnetic activity (aaLmax, r=0.37). The rise time from aaHmin to aaHmax is weakly anti-correlated to the following aaHmax (r=-0.42). Similar correlations are also found for the 13-month smoothed monthly mean aa index. These results are expected to be useful in understanding the geomagnetic activity intensity of solar cycle 25.

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“…GAC'a kıyasla R25 maks değeri için farklı tahminler bulunmuştur. Örneğin Du (2020), Ekim 2024 olarak bulunan 25. GAC maksimum zamanı ve bu zamandaki R25 maks Şekil 1.…”

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Prediction of Solar Activity Cycle 25 with NARX Neural Networks

KALKAN

SAYGAÇ

GADELMAVLA

2022

Turkish Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics

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Güneş Aktivite Çevrimlerini (GAC) tahmin etmek; Dünya yörüngesindeki uzay araçlarının güvenliği, iletişim ağları ve genel olarak yaşam üzerindeki olumsuz etkileri nedeniyle önemli hale gelmiştir. Bu çalışmada, 25. GAC tahmini için yaklaşık 3246 adet 13 aylık ortalama Güneş Lekesi Sayısı'ndan (GLS) (Temmuz 1749 -Aralık 2019 arasında) oluşan büyük bir veri seti ile Doğrusal Olmayan Otoregresif Eksojen (NARX) sinir ağı tabanlı modeller kullanılmıştır. NARX modelleri veri seti ile Bayesian Regülasyonu kullanılarak eğitilmiştir. NARX modelinin performansı Ortalama Karekök Sapması (RMSE), Korelasyon Katsayısı (r) ve Normalize Nash-Sutcliffe Verimlilik Katsayısı (NNSE) kullanılarak hesaplanmıştır ve modelin performansının "çok iyi" (NNSE > 0.95) olduğu bulunmuştur. Modelimiz diğer benzer çalışmalardan elde edilen sonuçlarla karşılaştırılarak doğrulanmıştır ve 25. GAC için maksimum GLS (R25 maks ) 104,542 ve maksimum ayı Mayıs 2024 olarak tahmin edilmiştir. NARX tabanlı modellerin literatürde bildirilen diğer yöntemlere kıyasla iyi ve uyumlu tahmin sonuçları ortaya çıkardığı görülmüştür.

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The solar cycle: predicting the peak of solar cycle 25

Cited by 22 publications

References 47 publications

An Overview of Solar Radio Type II Bursts through analysis of associated solar and near Earth space weather features during Ascending phase of SC 25

An Overview of Solar Radio Type II Bursts through analysis of associated solar and near Earth space weather features during Ascending phase of SC 25

Estimating the maximum of the smoothed highest 3-hourly aa index in 3 d by the preceding minimum for the solar cycle

Prediction of Solar Activity Cycle 25 with NARX Neural Networks

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