The slowing of sub-Saharan Africa's urbanization: evidence and implications for urban livelihoods

Abstract

According to data from the most recent inter-census period, some sub-Saharan African countries are now urbanizing very slowly. Actual decreases in the level of urbanization are rare, but have been recorded for Zambia (where counter-urbanization began in the 1980s) and Côte d'Ivoire and Mali (where there is evidence of counter-urbanization during the 1990s). Countries where urbanization levels are stagnating or increasing very slowly, especially when considering large and medium-sized towns, include Benin, Mozambique, Senegal, Zimbabwe, Mauritania, Burkina Faso and Niger. The East African situation is more mixed, but growth rates in many large centres are around or below the national rate. For many urban centres there is evidence of increased circular migration, which has reduced the contribution of in-migration to urban growth. These trends are largely the result of declining economic opportunities in many urban areas, reflecting crises in urban poverty and livelihood insecurity.

Urban Governance and Service Delivery in African Cities: The Role of Politics and Policies

“…Although debate exists over whether Africa can be accurately classified as the fastest urbanising region of the world (see Potts, 2009;Satterthwhaite, 2010), it is undoubtedly true that many more Africans now live in urban areas than at any other point in history. The World Bank predicts that by 2030 Africa will finally be an urban continent, with more than 50% of its population living in cities (Kessides, 2006).…”

Urbanization and linkages to smallholder farming in sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for food security

“…Beauchemin and Bocquier (2004) challenge this assumption, and show the fall of urban fertility rates in a number of African cities in the 1980s and 1990s, as a result of movement in itself as well as the adaptation to urban fertility regimes. Signs of falling urban fertility rates are confirmed on a cross-country basis in more recent Demographic Health Surveys (Potts 2009;2012b). The distribution of the urban population has shifted towards larger urban areas over the past few decades and this is also likely to affect fertility behaviour over time, as smaller urban areas maintain fertility rates and child mortality rates closer to those of rural areas (Montgomery 2008;Tacoli 2012).…”

Can devolution and rural capacity trigger de-urbanization? Case studies in Kenya and Malaysia respectively

“…Further systematic empirical research by Potts (2005Potts ( , 2006Potts ( , 2009Potts ( , 2012a has continued to show that the notion of rapid urbanisation in Africa no longer holds true as presented by several reports including the World Bank (2009) Developmental Report. It is shown that there is much variation in the urbanisation patterns of countries South of Sub Saharan Africa.…”

“…In Kenya, Potts (1995Potts ( , 2005Potts ( , 2006Potts ( , 2009Potts ( , 2012a has shown evidence of declining rates of urbanization in most of sub-Saharan Africa while in Malaysia there is evidence of de-industrialization due to depleting oil and gas resources. However while the factors behind de-urbanisation in both countries are different, there are lessons that Kenya can learn from Malaysia's industrialization, subsequent urbanization and now de-industrialization process.…”