The Slow Pace of Green Transformation: Underlying Factors and Implications

Abstract

Concerns about climate change are a hot topic in the current debate about a sustainable future, and despite more than 30 years of international conferences, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP), the annual usage amount of fossil fuel-based energy sources has remained largely unchanged, and the green transition to a carbon-free energy system is progressing at a much slower pace than anticipated. This paper presents an original approach that consists in addressing the green transition’s dilemmas by analyzing the complex interplay of strongly interwoven forces hindering the rapid adoption of so-called green energy sources scrutinized from a three-fold perspective: socio-psychological; political–strategic and territorial; and technological. Moreover, these forces are ranked according to the magnitude of their impact on the anticipated transition to green, and it is estimated by logistic fit extrapolation that the total share of the contribution of low-carbon sources might reach a maximum of about 25% among all energy sources in 2050. A final original picture is presented, summarizing how all the involved forces are acting upon the expected transition as well as their consequences.