The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration

Abstract

We apply an understanding of what computers dothe execution of procedural or rules-based logicto study how computer technology alters job skill demands. We contend that computer capital (1) substitutes for a limited and well-defined set of human activities, those involving routine (repetitive) cognitive and manual tasks; and (2) complements activities involving non-routine problem solving and interactive tasks. Provided these tasks are imperfect substitutes, our model implies measurable changes in the task content of employment, which we explore using representative data on job task requirements over 1960-1998. Computerization is associated with declining relative industry demand for routine manual and cognitive tasks and increased relative demand for non-routine cognitive tasks. Shifts are evident within detailed industries, within detailed occupations, and within education groups within industries. Translating observed task shifts into educational demands, the sum of within-industry and within-occupation task changes explains thirty to forty percent of the observed relative demand shift favoring college versus noncollege labor during 1970 to 1998, with the largest impact felt after 1980. Changes in task content within nominally identical occupations explain more than half of the overall demand shift induced by computerization.

Does Automation Drive the Labor Market?

“…A popular theory of these changes, commonly associated with the analysis in Autor et al (2003), is that middle-wage occupations are intensive in routine tasks, leading them to decline in employment shares and relative wages in the face of automation. An implication is that occupations that cannot be easily automated are predicted to perform relatively well.…”

“…The seminal study of the substitutability between processing technology and labor inputs that are routine is Autor et al (2003). Their approach of measuring routineness from the Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOT) has been widely replicated.…”

“…Their approach of measuring routineness from the Dictionary of Occupational Titles (DOT) has been widely replicated. More recent studies by Autor et al (2006) and Autor and Dorn (2013) have classified the routineness of occupations from dimensions measured by Autor et al (2003) in the DOT. Here we take examine the routine task intensity index developed in Autor and Dorn (2013).…”

Overeducation or structural change? An analysis of the impact of ICT, university training and organisational change of business salaries

“…De este modo, se confirma la aproximación ya existente en la literatura, sobre el cambio técnico sesgador de habilidades (Skill-Biased Technical Change, SBTC). Según esta aproximación, el proceso de introducción de una tecnología que genera unos trabajadores más formados y con mejores competencias, o que sólo puede ser usada por estos trabajadores, explica el incremento observado de la ocupación y los salarios de los empleados más cualificados, tanto en el ámbito empresarial como en el nacional y el internacional (Autor et al, 1998;Berman et al, 1998;Berman y Machin, 2000). Por otra parte, la ocupación perdida con el progreso digital y el uso intensivo del conocimiento tienden a concretarse en la fuerza de trabajo del sector manufacturero y en los trabajadores menos cualificados.…”

“…En un trabajo seminal, Autor et al (2003) corroboran empíricamente dos hechos relacionados con el uso de los ordenadores en el trabajo: 1) que sustituyen el trabajo basado en tareas cognitivas y manuales que se tienen que llevar a cabo siguiendo un proceso explícito, y 2) que complementan el trabajo basado en tareas focalizadas en la resolución de problemas no rutinarios y en comunicaciones complejas. En este sentido, y para el periodo 1960-1998, los autores confirman que en Estados Unidos el proceso digital se ha vinculado con una reducción relativa del trabajo basado en tareas rutinarias manuales y cognitivas, y con un incremento relativo del trabajo basado en tareas no rutinarias cognitivas.…”