The Skill Assessment of Weather and Research Forecasting and WAVEWATCH-III Models During Recent Meteotsunami Event in the Persian Gulf

Abstract

This study aims to use a fully realistic high-resolution mesoscale atmospheric and wave model to reproduce met-ocean conditions during a meteotsunami in the Persian Gulf. The atmospheric simulations were performed with the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model by varying planetary boundary layer, microphysics, cumulus, and radiations parameterizations. The atmospheric results were compared to the meteorological observations (e.g., air pressure and wind speed) from the coastal and island synoptic and buoy stations of the nearest area to the meteotsunami event. The results show that using Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) scheme for planetary boundary and surface layer had the best performance for stations over the water, whereas applying Mellor-Yamada-Janjic scheme for planetary boundary and Eta similarity surface layer had the best performance for stations over the land. For wave simulations, the WAVEWATCH-III model was employed with the well-known WAM-Cycle4 formulation and a more recent ST6 package. Six WRF experiments and ERA5 wind data were used to force the wave models. The new error parameter was introduced to identify the optimum wind data for wave simulation. EXP4 configuration which uses the MYNN scheme for planetary boundary and surface layer was led to minimum error, while ERA5 severely underestimated Hs and Tp parameters. For the first time, the Gaussian Quadrature Method (GQM) was implemented in the WAVEWATCH-III model and combined with a depth scale to be used in the Persian Gulf. This method is more accurate for non-linear wave-wave interaction than the default Discrete Interaction Approximation (DIA) method. Lower coefficients for dissipation term were required for GQM and the resulted bulk wave parameters were improved compared to the DIA method. The calibrated ST6 formulation with GQM resulted in a more realistic prediction of wave spectrum than the default settings of the WAVEWATCH-III.

Climate projections of meteotsunami hazards

“…In the last decade, numerical modelling and forecast of meteotsunami events has been a pressing issue for the development of meteotsunami early warning systems (Vilibicé t al., 2016). Despite the many challenges posed by accurately simulating both the localized mesoscale atmospheric processes and the nearshore amplifications driving the meteotsunami events, more and more early warning systems and high-resolution modelling suites are nowadays capable to capture these processes (e.g., Renault et al, 2011;Anderson and Mann, 2021;Angove et al, 2021;Sun and Niu, 2021;Tojcǐćet al, 2021;Kim et al, 2022;Rahimian et al, 2022). Historically, three complementary avenues have been explored: (1) synoptic indices, (2) high-resolution numerical models and (3) ensemble or stochastic approaches.…”