Recent community-and hospital-based studies of epilepsy from its onset suggest a much better prognosis than previously recognized, with about three-quarters of patients entering long-term remission on current medication. The first two years of medication are crucial in determining longer-term prognosis. Early effective therapy may be important in preventing the evolution of chronic epilepsy. Adverse prognostic factors include brain lesions, neuropsychiatric handicaps, and poor compliance.
PROGNOSIS OF EPILEPSYThe traditional and rather gloomy view of prognosis was summarized in the detailed review by Rodin [1] which spans the period from Gowers [2], who first applied a statistical approach to prognosis in the late nineteenth century, to Rodin's own valuable studies. Rodin concluded that only approximately one-third of epileptic patients are likely to achieve a terminal remission of at least two years; that the longer patients are followed up, the more likely is relapse to occur; and that 80 percent of all patients with epilepsy are likely to have a chronic seizure disorder. Although the latter does not rule out short-term remissions, it emphasizes that epilepsy should be regarded as a chronic condition with remissions and exacerbations. Rodin recognized that his review was based almost wholly on studies of chronic patients in institutions or attending special outpatient clinics. He noted that the longer the history of epilepsy prior to hospital consultation the worse the prognosis, and he rightly drew attention to the good prognosis reported by Gowers [2] in patients with a short history of epilepsy treated with bromides. At the time of his review there had been no systematic study of epilepsy at its onset and, as Shorvon [3] has pointed out, a weakness or source of misunderstanding in the studies reviewed was a failure to appreciate certain temporal aspects of the development of epilepsy, arising from the retrospective, cross-sectional nature of the investigations, based on heterogeneous populations of patients with a very variable duration of illness. Another interesting feature of the period, approximately a century, reviewed by Rodin was the introduction and use of many major anticonvulsant drugs of undoubted efficacy, from bromides, through barbiturates, to hydantoins, succinamides, and carbamazepine, most of which are still widely prescribed today. Rodin questioned whether there had been any improvement in overall prognosis throughout this time. A factor which was and still is missing in our understanding of prognosis is any information about the prognosis of untreated epilepsy. Practice was and still is perhaps influenced by Gowers's [2] view that the spontaneous cessation of the disease was an event too rare to be reasonably anticipated in any given case.In the last decade new studies have focused attention on epilepsy as viewed and 79