The simulation of heavy rainfall episode over Mumbai: impact of horizontal resolutions and cumulus parameterization schemes

Deb, Sanjib; Kishtawal, C. M.; Bongirwar, Vishal; Pal, P. K.

doi:10.1007/s11069-009-9361-8

Cited by 18 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…The problem of forecasting heavy precipitation is specially difficult since it involves creating a quantitative precipitation forecast, recognized as a challenging task [5]. Simulation of active mesoscale systems such as western disturbances, severe thunderstorms, tropical cyclones and heavy rainfall episodes during active monsoon season, with high-resolution mesoscale models such as the Fifth-Generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model have been attempted by many researchers (e.g., Ahasan et al [6]; Kumer et al [7]; Dev et al [8]; Patra et al [9], Prasad [2]; Das [10,11], and Litta et al [12]). Application of numerical weather prediction (NWP) model in research and forecasting of heavy rainfall during monsoon season is very little in Bangladesh.…”

Section: ′-92mentioning

confidence: 99%

Synoptic Analysis of a Heavy Rainfall Event over Southeast Region of Bangladesh Using WRF Model

Ahasan¹,

Mannan²,

Debsarma³

2013

J. Sci. Res.

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Synoptic analysis of the heavy rainfall event of 7 September 2011 was carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. This extraordinary rainfall event was localized over the southeast region of Bangladesh and recorded rainfall was 331 mm at Chittagong and 226 mm at Sandwip within a span of 24-h. The model was run at 9 km horizontal resolution using KF CPS with YSU PBL scheme. The model performance was evaluated by examining the different predicted parameters like mean sea level pressure, upper and lower level circulations, wind shear, relative vorticity, convergence, moisture and rainfall. The rainfall was validated with TRMM 3B42RT and observed rainfall data. The results indicate that the WRF model was able to simulate the heavy rainfall event, and associated synoptic features reasonably well, though there are some biases in the rainfall pattern. The results suggest that the highly localized heavy rain over southeast Bangladesh was the result of an interaction of the large scale monsoon system with cyclonic disturbances and required moisture have been supplied from the Bay of Bengal. The low level flow facilitated strong convergence over the region due to horizontal wind shear, which resulted in maintenance of the storms.

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Section: ′-92mentioning

confidence: 99%

Synoptic Analysis of a Heavy Rainfall Event over Southeast Region of Bangladesh Using WRF Model

Ahasan¹,

Mannan²,

Debsarma³

2013

J. Sci. Res.

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“…WRF is a nextgeneration, limited-area, non-hydrostatic mesoscale modelling system, with vertical terrain-following eta coordinate designed to serve both operational and forecasting as well as atmospheric research needs. The WRF-ARW model has been widely used for simulating precipitation processes, both in forecast (Deb et al, 2010;Weisman et al, 2008) and diagnostic mode (J. Lou and Breed, 2011;Bukovsky and Karoly, 2009).…”

Section: Model Setupmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation of a persistent medium-term precipitation event over the western Iberian Peninsula

Pereira

Carvalho

Ferreira

et al. 2013

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. This study evaluated the performance of the WRF-ARW (Weather Research and Forecasting with AdvancedResearch) weather prediction model in simulating the spatial and temporal patterns of an extreme rainfall period over a complex orographic region in north-central Portugal. The analysis was performed during the rainy season and, more specifically, the month of December 2009. In this period, the region of interest was under the influence of a sequential passage of low-pressure systems associated with frontal surfaces. These synoptic weather patterns were responsible for long periods of rainfall, resulting in a high monthly precipitation.The WRF model results during the study period were furthermore evaluated with the specific objective to complement gaps in the precipitation recordings of a reference meteorological station (located in Pousadas), the data of which are fundamental for hydrological studies in nearby experimental catchments.Three distinct WRF model runs were forced with initial fields and boundary conditions obtained from a global domain model: (1) a reference experiment with no nudging (RunRef); (2) observational nudging for a specific location, i.e. the above-mentioned Pousadas reference station (RunObsN); and (3) nudging to the analysed field (RunGridN). Model performance was evaluated, using several statistical parameters, against a dataset of 27 rainfall stations that were grouped by elevation. The three model runs had similar performances, even though RunGridN resulted in a slight improvement. Regarding the other two experiments, this improvement justifies its use for complementing the surface measurements at the Pousadas reference station. Overall model accuracy, expressed in root mean square error (RMSE), of the three runs was comparable for the stations of the different elevations classes. Even so, it was slightly better for stations in the lowlands than the highlands. Furthermore, model predictions tended to be less accurate for stations located in rough terrain and deep valleys.

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“…Heavy rainfall over Mumbai (July 26, 2005) and Ahmedabad (August 2006) have been simulated using the WRF model (Deb et al 2008(Deb et al , 2010.…”

Section: Wrf Model Setupmentioning

confidence: 99%

Verification of cloud cover forecast with INSAT observation over western India

et al. 2010

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Since the beginning of the summer monsoon 2009, experimental mesoscale weather forecasts in real time are being generated using WRF model by the Meteorology and Oceanography Group at the Space Applications Centre (ISRO) and are disseminated through MOSDAC (www.mosdac.gov.in) to various users. To begin with, the 12 h, 24 h and 48 h forecasts for the western India region are made available. A study is undertaken to comprehensively assess the cloudiness prediction performance of WRF model. The evaluations have been made over the three months period during monsoon 2009. INSAT cloud imagery data has been used as a reference for these evaluations. The verification strategy includes computation of various skill scores. It is seen that probability of detection (POD) of cloud is 84% and the false alarm rate (FAR) is around 18%. It is hoped that this assessment will provide information on the use of these forecasts in various applications.

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The simulation of heavy rainfall episode over Mumbai: impact of horizontal resolutions and cumulus parameterization schemes

Cited by 18 publications

References 22 publications

Synoptic Analysis of a Heavy Rainfall Event over Southeast Region of Bangladesh Using WRF Model

Synoptic Analysis of a Heavy Rainfall Event over Southeast Region of Bangladesh Using WRF Model

Simulation of a persistent medium-term precipitation event over the western Iberian Peninsula

Verification of cloud cover forecast with INSAT observation over western India

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