The signs of Antarctic ozone hole recovery

Kuttippurath, J.; Nair, Prijitha J.

doi:10.1038/s41598-017-00722-7

Cited by 91 publications

(74 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…Other studies also indicated some early sign of ozone recovery in Antarctic spring and summer (Salby et al, 2011;Kuttippurath and Nair, 2017). September and October are months when the ozone hole gets largest and total ozone above…”

Section: Trends In Polar Springmentioning

confidence: 99%

Total ozone trends from 1979 to 2016 derived from five merged observational datasets – the emergence into ozone recovery

Weber¹,

Coldewey‐Egbers²,

Fioletov³

et al. 2017

Preprint

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Abstract.We report on updated trends using different merged datasets from satellite and groundbased observations for the time period 1979 until 2016. Trends were determined by application of a multiple linear regression (MLR) to annual mean zonal mean data. Merged datasets used are NASA MOD V8.6 and NOAA MERGE V8.6, both based upon data from the series of SBUV and SBUV-2 satellite instruments (1978-present) and the GTO (GOME-type Total Ozone) and GSG (GOME-SCIAMACHY-5 GOME2) merged datasets (1995-present) that are mainly composed of satellite data from GOME, SCIAMACHY, and GOME-2A. The fifth dataset are the monthly mean zonal mean data from ground data collected at WOUDC (World Ozone and UV Data Center). The addition of four more years of data since the last WMO Ozone Assessment (2013-2016 show that for most datasets and regions the trends since the stratospheric halogens reached maximum (∼1996 globally and ∼2000 in polar regions) are mostly not significantly different from zero. However, for some latitudes, in particular the southern hemisphere 10 extratropics and northern hemisphere subtropics, several datasets show small positive trends of slightly below +1 %/decade that are barely statistically significant at the 2σ uncertainty level. In the tropics only two datasets show significant trends of +0.5 to +0.8 %/decade, while the other show near zero trends. Positive trends since 2000 are observed over Antarctic in September, but near zero trends in October as well as in March over the Arctic. Since uncertainties due to possible drifts between the datasets as well as from the merging procedure used in the satellite datasets or due to the low sampling of ground 15 data are not accounted for, the retrieved trends can be only considered being at the brink of becoming significant, but there are indications that we are about to emerge into the expected recovery phase. Nevertheless, the recent trends are still considerably masked by the observed large year-to-year variability in total ozone.

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Section: Trends In Polar Springmentioning

confidence: 99%

Total ozone trends from 1979 to 2016 derived from five merged observational datasets – the emergence into ozone recovery

Weber¹,

Coldewey‐Egbers²,

Fioletov³

et al. 2017

Preprint

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“…Multiple studies have shown signs of Antarctic ozone recovery (Kuttippurath & Nair, 2017;Solomon et al, 2016;Strahan and Douglass, 2018). This caused concern since stratospheric ozone shields the Earth's surface from DNA damaging radiation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the Identification of Ozone Recovery

Stone

Solomon

Kinnison

2018

Geophysical Research Letters

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As ozone depleting substances decline, stratospheric ozone is displaying signs of healing in the Antarctic lower stratosphere. Here we focus on higher altitudes and the global stratosphere. Two key processes that can influence ozone recovery are evaluated: dynamical variability and solar proton events (SPEs). A nine‐member ensemble of free‐running simulations indicates that dynamical variability dominates the relatively small ozone recovery signal over 1998–2016 in the subpolar lower stratosphere, particularly near the tropical tropopause. The absence of observed recovery there to date is therefore not unexpected. For the upper stratosphere, high latitudes (50–80°N/S) during autumn and winter show the largest recovery. Large halogen‐induced odd oxygen loss there provides a fingerprint of seasonal sensitivity to chlorine trends. However, we show that SPEs also have a profound effect on ozone trends within this region since 2000. Thus, accounting for SPEs is important for detection of recovery in the upper stratosphere.

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“…Other studies also indicated some early signs of ozone recovery in Antarctic spring and summer (Salby et al, 2011;Kuttippurath and Nair, 2017). September and October are months when the ozone hole area reaches its maximum and total ozone above Antarctica exhibits minimum values (see https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/meteorology/SH.…”

Section: Trends In Polar Springmentioning

confidence: 99%