The significant yet short-term influence of research covidization on journal citation metrics

Abstract

COVID-19 has emerged as a significant research hotspot in recent years, leading to a surge in production and citations received by COVID-19 papers. While concerns have been raised about the potential citation boost on journals associated with publishing COVID-19 papers, the extent and mechanisms of such gain remain unclear. This study uses a generalized difference-in-differences approach to examine the impact of publishing COVID-19 papers on journal citations and related metrics in four highly covidized fields. Our results demonstrate that journals starting publishing COVID-19 papers in health sciences fields in 2020 experienced a significant increase in citations compared with other journals. This trend continued in 2021, although to a lesser extent. However, such citation premiums became insignificant for journals starting to publish COVID-19 papers in 2021. In some fields, we also observed that COVID-19 papers increased the citations of non-COVID-19 papers in the same journals, but only for journals starting to publish COVID-19 papers in 2020. Our heterogeneity test indicates that COVID-19 papers published in prestigious journals brought more significant citation premiums to the journals and non-COVID-19 papers in most fields. We finally show that these citation premiums can affect various citation-based journal metrics. Our findings reveal a “gold rush” pattern in which early entrants are more likely to establish their citation advantage in research hotspots and caution against using such metrics to evaluate journal quality.