The Shifting Climate Portfolio of the Greater Yellowstone Area

Sepulveda, Adam J.; Tercek, Michael T.; Al‐Chokhachy, Robert; Ray, Andrew M.; Thoma, David P.; Hossack, Blake R.; Pederson, Gregory T.; Rodman, Ann; Olliff, Tom

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0145060

Cited by 28 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…In Grand Teton and Yellowstone National Parks, climate trends are contributing to an earlier onset of spring, increasing temperatures (Sepulveda et al. ), and decreases in the number of frost days (Pederson et al. ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Long-term data sets from the National Park Service and other federal partners will be crucial to evaluate the risk of loss and to contemplate future mitigation measures , Anderson et al 2015. In Grand Teton and Yellowstone National Parks, climate trends are contributing to an earlier onset of spring, increasing temperatures (Sepulveda et al 2015), and decreases in the number of frost days (Pederson et al 2011a). These changes have already altered the timing and magnitude of wetland-filling flooding events (e.g., snowmelt and runoff) and contributed to altered hydrological regimes, including the complete drying of shallow wetlands (McMenamin et al 2008, Schook andCooper 2014).…”

Section: Conservation Implications For the National Park Servicementioning

confidence: 99%

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Influence of climate drivers on colonization and extinction dynamics of wetland‐dependent species

et al. 2016

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Abstract.Freshwater wetlands are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Specifically, changes in temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration (i.e., climate drivers) are likely to alter flooding regimes of wetlands and affect the vital rates, abundance, and distributions of wetland-dependent species. Amphibians may be among the most climate-sensitive wetland-dependent groups, as many species rely on shallow or intermittently flooded wetland habitats for breeding. Here, we integrated multiple years of high-resolution gridded climate and amphibian monitoring data from Grand Teton and Yellowstone National Parks to explicitly model how variations in climate drivers and habitat conditions affect the occurrence and breeding dynamics (i.e., annual extinction and colonization rates) of amphibians. Our results showed that models incorporating climate drivers outperformed models of amphibian breeding dynamics that were exclusively habitat based. Moreover, climate-driven variation in extinction rates, but not colonization rates, disproportionately influenced amphibian occupancy in monitored wetlands. Long-term monitoring from national parks coupled with high-resolution climate data sets will be crucial to describing population dynamics and characterizing the sensitivity of amphibians and other wetland-dependent species to climate change. Further, long-term monitoring of wetlands in national parks will help reduce uncertainty surrounding wetland resources and strengthen opportunities to make informed, science-based decisions that have far-reaching benefits.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Conservation Implications For the National Park Servicementioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of climate drivers on colonization and extinction dynamics of wetland‐dependent species

et al. 2016

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“…In the GYE, increases in temperatures and snowpack declines have been documented (Pederson et al 2011, Sepulveda et al 2015. These changes have occurred coincident with observations of widespread whitebark pine die-offs in the region, but to date, there have been few considerations of water availability that contributed to the mass mortality event (Buotte et al 2016) and no formal consideration given to topoedaphic (terrain and soil) interactions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…, Sepulveda et al. ). These changes have occurred coincident with observations of widespread whitebark pine die‐offs in the region, but to date, there have been few considerations of water availability that contributed to the mass mortality event (Buotte et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Whitebark pine mortality related to white pine blister rust, mountain pine beetle outbreak, and water availability

et al. 2016

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Abstract. Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) forests in the western United States have been adversely affected by an exotic pathogen (Cronartium ribicola, causal agent of white pine blister rust), insect outbreaks (Dendroctonus ponderosae, mountain pine beetle), and drought. We monitored individual trees from 2004 to 2013 and characterized stand-level biophysical conditions through a mountain pine beetle epidemic in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Specifically, we investigated associations between tree-level variables (duration and location of white pine blister rust infection, presence of mountain pine beetle, tree size, and potential interactions) with observations of individual whitebark pine tree mortality. Climate summaries indicated that cumulative growing degree days in years 2006-2008 likely contributed to a regionwide outbreak of mountain pine beetle prior to the observed peak in whitebark mortality in 2009. We show that larger whitebark pine trees were preferentially attacked and killed by mountain pine beetle and resulted in a regionwide shift to smaller size class trees. In addition, we found evidence that smaller size class trees with white pine blister rust infection experienced higher mortality than larger trees. This latter finding suggests that in the coming decades white pine blister rust may become the most probable cause of whitebark pine mortality. Our findings offered no evidence of an interactive effect of mountain pine beetle and white pine blister rust infection on whitebark pine mortality in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Interestingly, the probability of mortality was lower for larger trees attacked by mountain pine beetle in stands with higher evapotranspiration. Because evapotranspiration varies with climate and topoedaphic conditions across the region, we discuss the potential to use this improved understanding of biophysical influences on mortality to identify microrefugia that might contribute to successful whitebark pine conservation efforts. Using tree-level observations, the National Park Service-led Greater Yellowstone Interagency Whitebark Pine Long-term Monitoring Program provided important ecological insight on the size-dependent effects of white pine blister rust, mountain pine beetle, and water availability on whitebark pine mortality. This ongoing monitoring campaign will continue to offer observations that advance conservation in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.

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“…, Sepulveda et al. ). In our time series, dry years were often followed by notably wet years (e.g., 2007–2008); therefore, we were unable to quantify the effects that multi‐year drought had on wetland dynamics.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multistate occupancy modeling improves understanding of amphibian breeding dynamics in the Greater Yellowstone Area

Gould

Ray

Bailey

et al. 2019

Ecological Applications

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Discerning the determinants of species occurrence across landscapes is fundamental to their conservation and management. In spatially and climatologically complex landscapes, explaining the dynamics of occurrence can lead to improved understanding of short‐ vs. long‐term trends and offer novel insight on local vs. regional change. We examined the changes in occupancy for two species of anurans with different life histories over a decade using hundreds of wetland sites in Yellowstone and Grand Teton National Parks. To account for the joint dynamics of wetland drying and amphibian breeding, we adopted a multistate occupancy model as a means to investigate mechanistic relationships of observed occurrence patterns with climatological drivers of wetland hydrologic variability. This approach allowed us to decompose occupancy dynamics into habitat changes caused by wetland drying and amphibian breeding activity, conditional on available water and previous breeding state. Over our 10‐yr time series, we observed considerable variability in climate drivers and the proportion of dry wetlands. Boreal chorus frogs (Pseudacris maculata) were more responsive to changes in wetland inundation status than Columbia spotted frogs (Rana luteiventris), as indicated by higher breeding colonization probabilities under favorable (wet) conditions. Both species had high probabilities of breeding persistence in permanently inundated wetlands with prior breeding. Despite the absence of multi‐year drought in our time series, mechanistic relationships described here offer insights on how future climate variation may result in reduced and/or shifted occurrence patterns for pond‐breeding anurans in the Greater Yellowstone Area. Further, our modeling approach may prove valuable in evaluating determinants of occurrence for other species that are dependent on wetlands or other dynamic habitats.

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The Shifting Climate Portfolio of the Greater Yellowstone Area

Cited by 28 publications

References 59 publications

Influence of climate drivers on colonization and extinction dynamics of wetland‐dependent species

Influence of climate drivers on colonization and extinction dynamics of wetland‐dependent species

Whitebark pine mortality related to white pine blister rust, mountain pine beetle outbreak, and water availability

Multistate occupancy modeling improves understanding of amphibian breeding dynamics in the Greater Yellowstone Area

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