The ShakeOut Scenario

Jones, Lucile M.; Bernknopf, Richard; Cox, Dale A.; Goltz, James D.; Hudnut, K. W.; Mileti, Dennis S.; Perry, S. Marshall; Ponti, Daniel J.; Porter, Keith; Reichle, Michael; Seligson, Hope A.; Shoaf, Kimberley; Treiman, Jerry; Wein, Anne

doi:10.3133/ofr20081150

Cited by 109 publications

(79 citation statements)

References 1 publication

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“…It is important to understand this region because the seismic hazard assessment for the greater Los Angeles basin, home to more than 18 million people, depends on how earthquake energy is transmitted through this complex zone (Jones et al, 2008). The SAF system in SGP has experienced a long history of fault strand switching.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Late Quaternary slip history of the Mill Creek strand of the San Andreas fault in San Gorgonio Pass, southern California: The role of a subsidiary left-lateral fault in strand switching

Kendrick

Matti

Mahan

2015

Geological Society of America Bulletin

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The fault history of the Mill Creek strand of the San Andreas fault (SAF) in the SanGorgonio Pass region, along with the reconstructed geomorphology surrounding this fault strand, reveals the important role of the left-lateral Pinto Mountain fault in the regional fault strand switching. The Mill Creek strand has 7.1-8.7 km total slip. Following this displacement, the Pinto Mountain fault offset the Mill Creek strand 1-1.25 km, as SAF slip transferred to the San Bernardino, Banning, and Garnet Hill strands. An alluvial complex within the Mission Creek watershed can be linked to palinspastic reconstruction of drainage segments to constrain slip history of the Mill Creek strand. We investigated surface remnants through detailed geologic mapping, morphometric and stratigraphic analysis, geochronology, and pedogenic analysis. The degree of soil development constrains the duration of surface stability when correlated to other regional, independently dated pedons. This correlation indicates that the oldest surfaces are signifi cantly older than 500 ka. Luminescence dates of 106 ka and 95 ka from (respectively) 5 and 4 m beneath a younger fan surface are consistent with age estimates based on soil-profi le development. Offset of the Mill Creek strand by the Pinto Mountain fault suggests a short-term slip rate of ~10-12.5 mm/yr for the Pinto Mountain fault, and a lower long-term slip rate. Uplift of the Yucaipa Ridge block during the period of Mill Creek strand activity is consistent with thermochronologic modeled uplift estimates.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Late Quaternary slip history of the Mill Creek strand of the San Andreas fault in San Gorgonio Pass, southern California: The role of a subsidiary left-lateral fault in strand switching

Kendrick

Matti

Mahan

2015

Geological Society of America Bulletin

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“…Better estimates of scenario impacts require detailed maps of ground-shaking and building inventory as in Kircher et al (2006) or Jones et al (2008). This example shows the value of considering the impacts of different mitigation policies on losses and casualties in interdisciplinary scenario earthquake-impact studies.…”

Section: Scenario-based Policy Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 97%

Using Collapse Risk Assessments to Inform Seismic Safety Policy for Older Concrete Buildings

Liel

Deierlein

2012

Earthquake Spectra

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For many in the engineering community, nonductile concrete buildings are the next priority for seismic safety legislation in California. The history of such policies shows that implementation has been challenged by the high costs of seismic retrofit, opposition from building owners, and difficulty in defining and evaluating seismic safety standards. As a result, seismic legislation for existing buildings has developed in response to major earthquakes, rather than through proactive risk assessment. Advances in performance-based earthquake engineering provide a consistent framework for assessing building collapse risk using nonlinear dynamic analysis. These tools are applied to evaluate the risk of earthquake-induced collapse and fatalities in a representative set of older concrete frames. Results show that nonductile concrete frame buildings are about 35 times more likely to collapse in earthquakes than their modern counterparts. These assessments are used to investigate the impact of policy alternatives for seismic mitigation of nonductile concrete buildings.

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“…As a result, they Jones et al, 2008) provide job opportunities to people not available elsewhere, resulting in large migration to urbanized regions. As a result, they Jones et al, 2008) provide job opportunities to people not available elsewhere, resulting in large migration to urbanized regions.…”

Section: Megacitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A M w 7.8 earthquake scenario on the southern San Andreas Fault was recently developed for use in the Great Southern California ShakeOut (Jones et al, 2008). Hereafter, this scenario will be referred to as the ShakeOut Scenario.…”

Section: San Andreas Fault Earthquake Impacts To Los Angeles Megacitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Geotechnics and Earthquake Geotechnics Towards Global Sustainability

Iai¹

2011

Geotechnical, Geological, and Earthquake Engineering

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The ShakeOut Scenario

Cited by 109 publications

References 1 publication

Late Quaternary slip history of the Mill Creek strand of the San Andreas fault in San Gorgonio Pass, southern California: The role of a subsidiary left-lateral fault in strand switching

Late Quaternary slip history of the Mill Creek strand of the San Andreas fault in San Gorgonio Pass, southern California: The role of a subsidiary left-lateral fault in strand switching

Using Collapse Risk Assessments to Inform Seismic Safety Policy for Older Concrete Buildings

Geotechnics and Earthquake Geotechnics Towards Global Sustainability

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