The ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario— A story that southern Californians are writing

Perry, Suzanne C.; Cox, Dale W.; Jones, Lucile M.; Bernknopf, Richard; Goltz, James D.; Hudnut, K. W.; Ponti, Daniel J.; Reichle, Michael; Seligson, Hope A.; Shoaf, Kimberley; Treiman, Jerry; Wein, Anne

doi:10.3133/cir1324

Cited by 11 publications

(7 citation statements)

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“…This region recently has been the focus of considerable debate among geoscientists concerned with fault-rupture scenarios and attendant seismic risk (e.g., Carena et al, 2004;Plesch et al, 2007;Dair and Cooke, 2009;Yule, 2009Cooke and Dair, 2011;Heermance and Yule, 2017;Fosdick and Blisniuk, 2018;Douilly et al, 2020). For example, the scenario earthquake presented to the public and frequently cited (Jones et al, 2008;Perry et al, 2008;Treiman et al, 2008) highlights a tremendous seismic hazard to the heavily populated Los Angeles Basin when SAF rupture originating from the southeast, near the Salton Sea, continues through the SGPr unhindered. If rupture were to be arrested or significantly slowed at the SGPr, the resulting seismic energy within the Los Angeles Basin would be much lower, but other regions could be more severely impacted.…”

Section: ■ Statement Of Problemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geologic and geomorphic evidence for multi-phase history of strands of the San Andreas fault through the San Gorgonio Pass structural knot, southern California

2022

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The San Gorgonio Pass region of southern California is a locus of extensive Quaternary deformation within a multi-strand section of the San Andreas fault zone. The geomorphology of the San Gorgonio Pass region reflects the complicated history of geologic events in the formation of this structurally complex region. We define fault-bounded blocks in San Gorgonio Pass and focus on two that are characterized by extensive crystalline bedrock outcrops with similar bedrock lithologies. These two blocks are separated by the San Bernardino strand of the San Andreas fault. Morphometric variables, including local relief, slope, slope distribution, and surface roughness, consistently demonstrate distinctions between the bedrock upland regions of the two blocks. Geologic observations of the region highlight differences in Quaternary units within the two blocks, reflective of the differing surficial processes active in each block. Within the Kitching Peak block, the morphology highlights a lineament that we informally name the Lion Canyon lineament. This boundary more clearly differentiates the two regions, as compared to the mapped San Bernardino strand, and may represent the previously active strand or bounding structure in this section. The distinction in morphology and surficial processes leads to our interpretation that the Kitching Peak and Pisgah Peak blocks have experienced different uplift histories. This further leads to the conclusion that the San Bernardino strand, broadly defined, has been integrated, at some point in the past, with the Banning strand, allowing for through-going rupture along the fault system. This connectivity may have occurred along the Burro Flats section of the San Bernardino strand or the Lion Canyon lineament. The fault connection along the mapped trace of the San Bernardino strand is not currently evident at the surface, however, suggesting that the integration has been disrupted. We propose this is due to intervals of N-S compression in the region, manifest as slip along the San Gorgonio Pass fault zone and other regional faults. We present evidence for lateral displacement along the San Bernardino and Banning strands of the San Andreas fault, discuss the implications of these displacements, and propose a sequence of fault activity, including multiple phases of activity along the San Bernardino and Banning strand pathway to account for the structural complexity and lack of surficial fault continuity.

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Section: ■ Statement Of Problemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geologic and geomorphic evidence for multi-phase history of strands of the San Andreas fault through the San Gorgonio Pass structural knot, southern California

2022

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“…4). 7 The four options participants evaluated were: 1) Design all new buildings using new codes/standards with specific functional recovery performance objectives,…”

Section: Processmentioning

confidence: 99%

NIST-FEMA post-earthquake functional recovery workshop report

Abrahams¹,

Pay²,

Sattar³

et al. 2021

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To strengthen America's resilience, the Federal Government recognizes a need to reduce interruptions to services and jobs, and to lessen disruption to social and economic community functions after earthquake events. Current building codes and standards largely focus on saving lives. However, maintaining services and functionality will require new mechanisms that more effectively limit damage to buildings and lifelines infrastructure systems.In response to a U.S. Congressional mandate, the National Institute of Standards and Technology and the Federal Emergency Management Administration 1 convened a Committee of Experts to recommend and assess "options" for improving post-earthquake reoccupancy and functional recovery time across the built environment. To inform the Committee of Experts and assist in their development of a report to Congress, stakeholder workshops were held in five cities across the country to gather information from subject matter experts and professionals in the earthquake community. This document details the processes for gathering input from stakeholders at workshops. It summarizes participants' reactions to functional recovery concepts and options, particularly with respect to information that can help determine appropriate recovery times, as well as criteria for assessing various implementation options. In particular, workshop participants provided insights regarding which community functions were viewed as critical to postearthquake recovery, and when components of the built environment that support those functions would need to recover in order to maintain community stability. Generally, participants categorized components of the built environment important in the short term (hours and days) more consistently than the components slated for return in longer timeframes (weeks and months). Participants noted the importance of local values and community contexts to these assignments. Attendees were also asked to consider what factors a policy maker could use to effectively assess and compare options to improve functional recovery. Cost, benefit, feasibility, effectiveness, and equity were the five categories of evaluative criteria identified most clearly and frequently across attendees.Overall, participants supported the idea of developing a national framework for functional recovery, while emphasizing the importance of flexibility and adaptability of the framework such that it can be utilized as a tool for planning at the local level. Additional key themes stakeholders identified as important for inclusion in the report to Congress are detailed in Section 5. Input from a diversity of stakeholder perspectives gathered at the workshops were essential to help develop the concept of functional recovery and inform the report to Congress. In the future, additional feedback will be needed to develop specific resilience goals, set public policy, and prioritize the investment of resources to produce functional recovery performance.

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“…A schematic representation of the impact of a disaster on a regional economy, adapted from Perry et al (2008).…”

Section: Creation Of the Cooperative Projectmentioning

confidence: 99%

Resilience by Design: Bringing Science to Policy Makers

Jones

2015

Seismological Research Letters

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The ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario— A story that southern Californians are writing

Cited by 11 publications

References 0 publications

Geologic and geomorphic evidence for multi-phase history of strands of the San Andreas fault through the San Gorgonio Pass structural knot, southern California

Geologic and geomorphic evidence for multi-phase history of strands of the San Andreas fault through the San Gorgonio Pass structural knot, southern California

NIST-FEMA post-earthquake functional recovery workshop report

Resilience by Design: Bringing Science to Policy Makers

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