The Sensitivity of Euro‐Atlantic Regimes to Model Horizontal Resolution

Strommen, Kristian; Mavilia, Irene; Corti, Susanna; Matsueda, Mio; Davini, Paolo; Hardenberg, Jost von; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Mizuta, Ryo

doi:10.1029/2019gl082843

Cited by 25 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 40 publications

(59 reference statements)

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“…However, the regime patterns are degraded in the HR version and this affects the resulting atmospheric flow. A similar result was obtained by Strommen et al (2019) for a different version of EC-Earth and two other climate models.…”

supporting

confidence: 84%

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HighResMIP versions of EC-Earth: EC-Earth3P and EC-Earth3P-HR – description, model computational performance and basic validation

et al. 2020

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Abstract. A new global high-resolution coupled climate model, EC-Earth3P-HR has been developed by the EC-Earth consortium, with a resolution of approximately 40 km for the atmosphere and 0.25∘ for the ocean, alongside with a standard-resolution version of the model, EC-Earth3P (80 km atmosphere, 1.0∘ ocean). The model forcing and simulations follow the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) protocol. According to this protocol, all simulations are made with both high and standard resolutions. The model has been optimized with respect to scalability, performance, data storage and post-processing. In accordance with the HighResMIP protocol, no specific tuning for the high-resolution version has been applied. Increasing horizontal resolution does not result in a general reduction of biases and overall improvement of the variability, and deteriorating impacts can be detected for specific regions and phenomena such as some Euro-Atlantic weather regimes, whereas others such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation show a clear improvement in their spatial structure. The omission of specific tuning might be responsible for this. The shortness of the spin-up, as prescribed by the HighResMIP protocol, prevented the model from reaching equilibrium. The trend in the control and historical simulations, however, appeared to be similar, resulting in a warming trend, obtained by subtracting the control from the historical simulation, close to the observational one.

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supporting

confidence: 84%

“…The analysis has been applied here to the EC-Earth3P and EC-Earth3P-HR hist-1950 simulations. Following recent works (Dawson and Palmer, 2015;Strommen et al, 2019), we computed the regimes via k-means clustering of daily geopotential height anomalies at 500 hPa over 30-85 • N,…”

Section: Weather Regimesmentioning

confidence: 99%

HighResMIP versions of EC-Earth: EC-Earth3P and EC-Earth3P-HR – description, model computational performance and basic validation

et al. 2020

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“…the variance ratio and the regime frequency bias, see Section 3.2). The model biases in simulating the observed regime centroids, frequencies and variance ratio are known and documented in literature (Dawson et al, 2012;Strommen et al, 2019;Fabiano et al, 2020;Weisheimer et al, 2014). The improvements of CMIP6 models compared to CMIP5 in this respect are therefore encouraging.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 56%

“…For the EAT sector, we set the number of regimes to 4, as is widely documented in literature (Michelangeli et al, 1995;Cassou, 2008;Dawson et al, 2012;Madonna et al, 2017;Strommen et al, 2019;Fabiano et al, 2020). For the PNA sector, we choose 4 clusters as in Straus et al (2007) and Weisheimer et al (2014), although a different number of clusters could be a viable alternative as argued in Straus et al (2007) and favoured by other studies (e.g.…”

Section: Weather Regimes Computationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In some regions, the flow tends to organize in some preferred configurations, although the number of such configurations to be considered is still a matter of debate (Hannachi et al, 2017). These preferred large-scale circulation patterns are commonly referred to as Weather Regimes (WRs) and have been studied mostly for the Euro-Atlantic (EAT Dawson et al, 2012;Strommen et al, 2019) and Pacific-North American (PNA Straus et al, 2007;Weisheimer et al, 2014) sectors. Each WR has a different impact on the climate of the downstream region, driving specific precipitation and temperature anomalies.…”

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confidence: 99%

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A regime view of future atmospheric circulation changes in Northern mid-latitudes

Fabiano¹,

Meccia²,

Davini³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Future wintertime atmospheric circulation changes in the Euro-Atlantic (EAT) and Pacific-North American (PNA) sectors are studied from a Weather Regimes perspective. The CMIP5 and CMIP6 historical simulations performance in reproducing the observed regimes is first evaluated, showing a general improvement of CMIP6 models, more evident for EAT. The circulation changes projected by CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenario simulations are analyzed in terms of the change in the frequency and persistence of the regimes. In the EAT sector, significant positive trends are found for the frequency and persistence of NAO+ for SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585 scenarios, with a concomitant decrease in the frequency of the Scandinavian Blocking and Atlantic Ridge regimes. For PNA, the Pacific Through regime shows a significant increase, while the Bering Ridge is predicted to decrease in all scenarios analyzed. The spread among the model responses is linked to different levels of warming in the Polar Stratosphere, the North Atlantic and the Arctic.

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Improved skill of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 over phase 5 models in reproducing weather regimes in East Asia

Chen

Jiang

Lang

et al. 2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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We evaluate the performance of climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 5 (CMIP5) and 6 (CMIP6) in simulating the weather regimes over East Asia during the period from 1961 to 2005. The circulation patterns, frequencies and transition probabilities of the weather regimes are obtained by categorizing the daily 500-hPa geopotential height (Z500) anomalies using the k-means clustering algorithm. We identify four winter (WWR1-4) and three summer weather regimes (SWR1-3) in both reanalysis datasets and CMIP5/6 models. Significant increasing (declining) frequency trends in WWR3 (WWR4) and SWR2 (SWR1) are found in the ERA5 and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets. On the whole, both generations of models demonstrate reasonable abilities to reproduce the circulation patterns of weather regimes based on the Z500 anomaly fields but overall underestimate the intensities of weather regime patterns, underestimate the occurrence frequencies of WWR3, SWR2, and SWR3, and overestimate the frequencies of WWR1, WWR2, WWR4, and SWR1. In terms of both the ensemble-mean and pairwise comparisons, the CMIP6 models generally perform better than their CMIP5 counterparts in reproducing the circulation pattern intensities, occurrence frequencies during the whole period and the linear frequency trends and transition probabilities of the weather regimes both in winter and summer. Further analysis shows a highly positive correlation between the total frequency and transition performances but a lower correlation between the biases in the total frequency and intensity of weather regime patterns. The improved skill of CMIP6 over the CMIP5 models in reproducing the weather regimes over East Asia may be partly related to the increased vertical atmospheric resolution in the model.

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The Sensitivity of Euro‐Atlantic Regimes to Model Horizontal Resolution

Cited by 25 publications

References 40 publications

HighResMIP versions of EC-Earth: EC-Earth3P and EC-Earth3P-HR – description, model computational performance and basic validation

HighResMIP versions of EC-Earth: EC-Earth3P and EC-Earth3P-HR – description, model computational performance and basic validation

A regime view of future atmospheric circulation changes in Northern mid-latitudes

Improved skill of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 over phase 5 models in reproducing weather regimes in East Asia

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