The Sensitivity Analysis for Supply and Demand Dynamics System of Aged Services Resource Allocation in China

Abstract

The rapid increase in the proportion of the elderly population in China has increased the demand for aged services. It is a huge challenge for the Chinese government to establish the aged service system to meet such a large demand in a short time. In its 14th Five-Year Development plan, to promote a more rational allocation of health services, the Chinese government plans to build a health service system for the elderly. Based on the aged service resource allocation model established in the previous research, this paper proposes optimization measures and improves the model. The second-order matrix sensitivity analysis is performed on 30 parameters in the improved model, and the influence law of parameters on the whole system under a different amplitude of variation is explored. The results show that the disability rate of the elderly population, the service capacity of aged service institutions, per capita disposable income, and other factors have a great impact on the balance between the supply and demand of aged service resources. Therefore, when formulating policies related to the allocation of aged service resources, we can focus on improving the health level of the elderly, increasing the investment of social funds in aged service, and improving people’s consumption levels, so as to further improve the aged service system.