The semi-arid integrated model (SIM), a regional integrated model assessing water availability, vulnerability of ecosystems and society in NE-Brazil

Abstract

Northeastern Brazil, an example of vulnerable semi-arid regions on the earth, is characterised by water scarcity and vulnerability of .natural resources, pronounced climatic variability and social stress situations. Integrated studies involving hydrology, ecology, meteorology, climatology, pedology, agronomy, and social and economic sciences are required not only for analysing consequences of the adverse natural conditions but also to assess possible strategies to make semi-arid regions less vulnerable to the present and changing climate. Integrated modelling of the relationships between water availability, quality of life and migration, including aspects of global change processes, in the Semi-arid Integrated Model (SIM) serves to understand the dynamics of the system. An overview of the concept, structure and application results of the integrated model are given. A sensitivity study on climate change illustrates potentially significant adverse effects on the region. Moreover, it shows that a regional integrated model is a suitable tool for complex and interdisciplinary studies. The present version of SIM still is in a development phase, especially in its representation of socioeconomic processes.

New records and update on the geographic distribution of Lontra longicaudis (Olfers, 1818) (Carnivora: Mustelidae) in Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests of northeastern Brazil

“…Caatinga biome is characterized by periodic severe droughts every few years, with rare events of floods (Krol et al 2001;Prado 2003). Some of river basins completely inserted in this biome have an artificial perennial hydrologic regime because of large reservoirs that control water flow.…”

“…This is especially important in the Caatinga, a highly impacted biome that has been neglected by scientific research and conservation strategies (Santos et al 2011, Ribeiro et al 2015. Water, an essential resource for otters, is increasingly scarce and demanded by human population in this biome (Krol et al 2001). We propose updating the IUCN distribution map of L. longicaudis to remove the area of northeastern Brazil where there was no direct or indirect evidence of this species' current presence during our sampling, and where none exists in the literature (Figure 4).…”

Development and Application of an Integrated Water Balance Model to Study the Sensitivity of the Tokyo Metropolitan Area Water Availability Scenario to Climatic Changes

“…The term Integrated Assessment in the field of water resources is getting increasingly popular nowadays, especially in the context of climate change impact studies (Krol et al, 2001;Bronstert et al, 2000Bronstert et al, , 2002. Development of an integrated assessment model of general applicability is usually complex in nature, which needs to combine several interdisciplinary sectors of natural, artificial and socioeconomic origins considering their probable interactions.…”

Simple water balance modelling of surface reservoir systems in a large data-scarce semiarid region / Modélisation simple du bilan hydrologique de systèmes de réservoirs de surface dans une grande région semi-aride pauvre en données

“…In the present study, which focuses on reservoir modelling, the runoff generation part of the WASA model was applied as described in Güntner & Bronstert (2004). The WASA model, in turn, is part of the Semiarid Integrated Model SIM (Krol et al, 2001;Jaeger, 2004), which integrates in a modular way component models of water availability, water use, agricultural production, agro-economy and socioeconomy to assess impacts of global change on the semiarid Northeast of Brazil. Within this framework, the coupling of the modules of water availability (WASA) and water use (NOWUM, Döll & Hauschild, 2002) is of particular relevance for the present study (see also Bronstert et al, 2000).…”