The Selection of Intermodal Transport System Scenarios in the Function of Southeastern Europe Regional Development

Abstract

The development of intermodal transportation (IT) systems is of vital importance for the sustainability of logistics activities. The existing research point at individual directions of action for system improvement and increase of IT participation in overall transportation, thus reducing negative impacts of logistics on sustainability. However, there is a lack of research defining complex scenarios that unite existing ideas and concepts of IT system development and improvement. Accordingly, this article deals with the definition and selection of the most appropriate IT development scenario for the region of Southeastern Europe. Six different potential scenarios that differ in the network configuration, the required level of logistics infrastructure development, the role of different IT terminal categories, the involvement of different transportation modes, and goods flows’ transformation degree, are defined. The scenarios are analyzed according to four stakeholder groups and twelve defined criteria. A novel hybrid multi-criteria decision-making model, based on fuzzy Delphi, fuzzy Factor Relationship (FARE), and fuzzy Measurement of Alternatives and Ranking according to Compromise Solution (MARCOS) methods, is developed for solving the problem. The definition and analysis of the problem, the way of establishing the scenarios, as well as the development of a novel hybrid model are the main contributions of this article. A significant contribution is also the consideration of the Dry Port (DP) concept for the first time in the context of river ports. The results indicate that the scenario referring to the development of the IT core network with the Danube DP terminals is potentially the most appropriate scenario for the Southeastern Europe IT system.

Planning and development of sustanable logistics systems at a macro-level

“…The lack of appropriate logistics infrastructure for supporting those flows causes bottlenecks [8]. Technological, structural, and organizational changes are also required to ensure their efficient realization [9]. With the rise in intercontinental container flows volumes and the need for reducing sea transportation costs, there is an ongoing trend in developing and constructing freight ships with large capacities.…”

“…However, that is not a simple process because it includes a large number of stakeholders [18], complex problem structures [19], and many criteria [20] that the stakeholders use for potentiating the direction of actions. The development of IT systems must be preceded by the definition and selection of appropriate scenarios, in accordance with the specifics of the situation and stakeholder interests, with the aim set on acceptability and sustainability [9]. The selection of the appropriate IT development scenario has to be carried out in a multicriterial environment, by solving conflicting goals.…”

“…IT system development scenarios are numerous [9], and differ in the network structure, the role of IT terminals, applied technologies, utilized transportation modes, included goods flows, etc. The existing literature, depending on the observed problems and applied approaches, analyzed a wide set of IT sustainability criteria/parameters: technical (efficiency, modal redistribution, flexibility, availability, service quality, etc.)…”

“…The definition and selection of IT system development scenarios are one of the main tasks on the strategic planning level [9]. Considering that DP-based IT systems can have different structures, it is necessary to define the development direction appropriately.…”

“…The scenario refers to the development of a new DP-based network in the function of inland waterway container terminals [9]. The developed terminals have regional character and are with greater capacities.…”