The Second Nuclear Age

Bracken, Paul

doi:10.2307/20049619

Cited by 21 publications

(8 citation statements)

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“…A compromise position might be a US declaratory policy of 'no first use-guaranteed second use' against future breakers of the nuclear taboo as proposed by Paul Bracken. 27 On the other hand, cautious policy makers might prefer to avoid very specific statements about nuclear use, allowing themselves more leeway under duress and keeping opponents guessing in the exigent circumstance of a crisis. 25 …”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nuclear Weapons and Anticipatory Attacks: Implications for Russia and the United States

Cimbala

2015

The Journal of Slavic Military Studies

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Anticipatory attacks come in two forms. Preemptive attacks are first strikes based on the assumption that the opponent has already set an attack in motion or is about to, and the purpose of the preemption is to mitigate or neutralize the effect of the enemy's move. Preventive wars, on the other hand, are undertaken to preclude a threatening power from increasing its capabilities relative to ours, assuming that smaller differences in power will lead the challenger to become more risk acceptant. With respect to nuclear weapons, deterrence is intended to preclude both preemptive and preventive attacks, although the former is judged to be more likely than the latter. Leaders authorizing a nuclear preemption would need to have high confidence about the intentions as well as the capabilities of the other state, and the requirements for fine-grained intelligence would be considerable, prior to any actual launch of delivery systems. Seeing into the other side's world view, regardless of its apparent rationality or lack thereof, would also be prudent before undertaking a decision of such magnitude.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nuclear Weapons and Anticipatory Attacks: Implications for Russia and the United States

Cimbala

2015

The Journal of Slavic Military Studies

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“…This had been the case even before the Trump administration framed China as a ‘revisionist power’ (The White House, ) and took a more activist stance first to redress persistent trade imbalances, and second to delay China's technological advancement . Since trade, finance and technology have been the weapons of choice in the atomic epoch where a conventional military conflict between nuclear superpowers could escalate to mutual assured destruction (MAD) (Bracken, ; Do Nuclear Weapons Matter?, ; Kahn, ; Schelling, ), the intensification of geo‐economic competition between the USA and China may eventually engulf most Western powers given their defense dependency on the USA. As a learned geopolitician once put it, the logic of conflict is being transplanted into the grammar of commerce (Luttwak, ) and a zero‐sum game about market shares, technological breakthroughs and commercial fait accomplis may define the Sino–US strategic competition in the 21st century (Wright, ).…”

Section: The Geopolitical Crisis: Democratization Did Not Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Alleviating the Thucydides' Trap through Welfare State Dependence: How the Funding Needs of the Western Welfare State Can Influence Multilateral Relations with China

Avgouleas

Trigkas

2019

Global Policy

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The dual threat of a US–China confrontation and the rise of populism in the West due, in part, to the gradual decay of the welfare state, paint an ominous picture for the future of the post‐war status quo of ever‐expanding prosperity. Hegemonic competition between the incumbent superpower (the USA) and the challenger (China) framed as the Thucydides' Trap and adverse demographic and financial trends are the main causes behind both crises. In this paper, we argue that amidst deteriorating demographics, the sustainability of the Western welfare state could be significantly enhanced by positioning Western institutional investments in the regions across India and South East Asia – areas with strong modernization dynamics and the world's nascent most populous middle class. Such a policy could generate long‐term higher risk‐adjusted returns for Western pension funds, especially if Western investors look for complementarities with China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The proposed geographical calibration in Western institutional investments could lead to a relationship of strong reciprocal dependence between economic and social growth in the target regions, exports of Chinese construction and financial capacity, and Western welfare state viability. We call the suggested policy the ‘welfare state dependence’ hypothesis. The key objective of the hypothesis is the promotion of peaceful economic and geopolitical co‐existence in Eurasia through rational re‐alignment of the incentives of Western polities with Eurasian growth. But to make this new approach feasible, a number of BRI policy reforms that support its multilateralization are required.

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“…Complexity abounds, then, and the rise of new seagoing nuclear states, the resurgence of old ones, and the struggles of dominant SSBN-wielding states to retain their dominance threaten to make undersea nuclear deterrence a mercurial affair in the second nuclear age (Bracken 2000).…”

Section: Winning Without Fightingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sea changes: The future of nuclear deterrence

Holmes¹

2016

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

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In order to deter adversaries, a nuclear-armed power must deploy an invulnerable second-strike force; its leadership must display the willingness to use that force under certain well-defined circumstances; and it must make believers out of the prospective foes it hopes to deter, convincing them that its capability is real, and it has the resolve to use it. But new technology is empowering navies to peer underneath the sea, finding deep-running submarines more effectively than ever before. This calls into question the invulnerability of nuclear-powered ballisticmissile submarines, the most invulnerable retaliatory asset there is. This article explores the dynamics shaping undersea nuclear deterrence in the second nuclear age and ventures some speculation about how submarine combat may unfold in the coming decades.

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The Second Nuclear Age

Cited by 21 publications

References 0 publications

Nuclear Weapons and Anticipatory Attacks: Implications for Russia and the United States

Nuclear Weapons and Anticipatory Attacks: Implications for Russia and the United States

Alleviating the Thucydides' Trap through Welfare State Dependence: How the Funding Needs of the Western Welfare State Can Influence Multilateral Relations with China

Sea changes: The future of nuclear deterrence

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