The second and third waves in India: when will the pandemic be culminated?

Abstract

An unprecedented upsurge of COVID-19-positive cases and deaths is currently being witnessed across India. According to WHO, India reported an average of 3.9 lakhs of new cases during the first week of May 2021 which equals 47% of new cases reported globally and 276 daily cases per million population. In this letter, the concept of SIR and fractal interpolation models is applied to predict the number of positive cases in India by approximating the epidemic curve, where the epidemic curve denotes the two-dimensional graphical representation of COVID-19-positive cases in which the abscissa denotes the time, while the ordinate provides the number of positive cases. In order to estimate the epidemic curve, the fractal interpolation method is implemented on the prescribed data set. In particular, the vertical scaling factors of the fractal function are selected from the SIR model. The proposed fractal and SIR model can also be explored for the assessment and modeling of other epidemics to predict the transmission rate. This letter investigates the duration of the second and third waves in India, since the positive cases and death cases of COVID-19 in India have been highly increasing for the past few weeks, and India is in a midst of a catastrophizing second wave. The nation is recording more than 120 million cases of COVID-19, but pandemics are still concentrated in most states. In order to predict the forthcoming trend of the outbreaks, this study implements the SIR and fractal models on daily positive cases of COVID-19 in India and its provinces, namely Delhi, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Maharashtra.

Asymptomatic RT-PCR positive COVID-19 patients in orthopaedic pre-operative evaluation during the peak of the second wave

“…The second wave, which began in September 2020 in the Indian subcontinent, has a much steeper slope than the first, with a large number of asymptomatic people and a more infectious viral variant, resulting in a 50% higher infection rate. ( Kavitha et al, 2021 ) The COVID-19 detection rate in our country had been steadily declining to 2.3 % by February 2021, but a sudden surge in COVID-19-positive cases began in early March 2021, resulting in a positive rate of 3 to 13 %. It jumped to 21.02% by April 6, 2021, in just two weeks.…”

“…Furthermore, recent research shows that the second wave contains a higher proportion of asymptomatic patients with a more infectious viral variant. ( Kavitha et al, 2021 )…”

“…The ever-evolving nature, extended incubation period, and asymptomatic transmission have rendered it almost unstoppable, culminating in wave after wave of attacks. ( Kavitha et al, 2021 , Nakai et al, 2021 ) The crisis has put enormous strain on healthcare systems. Hospital resources have been primarily focused on the care of COVID-19 patients, causing thousands of orthopedic procedures to be postponed throughout the world if they were not deemed to cause substantial harm to the patient or outcome.…”

Dynamics of coronavirus pandemic: effects of community awareness and global information campaigns

“…Across the world, countries have executed various measures to control COVID-19, with the aim of slowing down transmission and dropping mortality. A lot of models have been proposed and analyzed mathematically in order to explore the spread and control of COVID-19 [ 21 – 27 ].…”

Direct Statistical Modeling of Spread of Epidemic Based On a Stage-Dependent Stochastic Model

“…Пандемия Ковид-19 инфекции привела к активной разработке математических моделей, отражающих динамику численности инфицированных, больных и умерших от Ковид-19 индивидуумов. Для анализа реальных данных и прогнозирования динамики эпидемического процесса использованы дифференциальные уравнения, модели временных рядов и модели некоторых других типов, см., например, [11]- [23]. Многие модели в форме дифференциальных уравнений представлены в виде SIR или SEIR моделей для однородных популяций и предполагают мгновенные переходы индивидуумов из одной когорты в другую без учета реального времени пребывания индивидуумов в той или иной когорте.…”