The Seasonality of Births in Canada and the Provinces, 1881-1989: Theory and Analysis

Trovato, Frank; Odynak, Dave

doi:10.25336/p6cs3g

Cited by 11 publications

(22 citation statements)

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“…The most comprehensive study of Canadian birth seasonality was done by Trovato and Odynak (1993). They compiled data on births from vital statistics data for the years 1926 5 -1989.…”

Section: Historical Patternsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Using a more comprehensive data source, LaLumia, Sallee, and Turner (2015), however, found a smaller magnitude: that a $1000 increase in benefits was necessary to incite the same 1 For example, later summer and early fall peaks have been documented in the United States (Siever 1985) and southern Europe (Lam &Miron 1994, andDe beer 1997), Spring peaks in northern Europe (Lam &Miron 1994, andDe beer 1997) and Canada (Trovato & Odynak 1993), and January peaks in the Soviet Union (Anderson and Silver 1988). 2 See, for example, Trovato & Odynak (1993) for a detailed discussion of these factors.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effects of the 2001 Extension of Paid Parental Leave Provisions on Birth Seasonality in Canada

Compton

Tedds

2016

Canadian Public Policy

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It is well known that there exists a strong seasonal pattern in births and that the pattern differs across geographic regions. While historically this seasonal pattern has been linked to exogenous factors, modern birth seasonality patterns can also be explained by purposive choice. If birth month of a child is at least partially chosen by the parents then, by extension, it can also be expected that this can be influenced by anything that changes the costs and benefits associated with that choice, including public policy. This paper explores the effect that the 2001 extension of paid parental leave benefits had on birth seasonality in Canada. Overall we find strong results that the pattern of birth seasonality in Canada changed after 2001, with a notable fall in spring births and an increase in late summer and early fall births. We discuss the potential effects of this unintended consequence, including those related to health and development, educational preparedness and outcomes, and econometric modelling. IntroductionIt is well known that there exists a strong seasonal pattern in births and that the pattern differs across geographic regions. 1 This display of birth seasonality has been linked to such exogenous factors as the photoperiod, climate, holidays, nutrition, urbanization, and other sociocultural and environmental factors. 2 More recently, researchers have been documenting changes in the historical seasonal patterns within countries since the advent of contraception, suggesting that modern birth seasonality patterns can also be explained by purposive choice (e.g. Van de Kaa 1987, Werschler & Halli 1992, Bobak & Gjonca 2001, Cassels 2002, Haandrikman & Van Wissen 2008. If birth month of a child is at least partially purposefully chosen by the parents then, by extension, it can also be expected that this can be influenced by anything that changes the costs and benefits associated with that choice, including public policy.There is some evidence to suggest that the timing of births can be influenced by public policy. Several studies have examined whether the delivery date of children, either delayed or expedited, is influenced by that tax treatment of children. The seminal work by Dickert-Conlin and Chandra (1999) considered the U.S. child tax benefit system that granted a whole year of tax relief to an individual or family that had a child in that tax year, even if the child was born on December 31. The authors found that such a system provided incentives for more children to be born in the last week of December rather than the first week of January; namely that a $50 increase in benefits led to a 1.4 percentage point increase in the probability of a December birth.Using a more comprehensive data source, LaLumia, Sallee, and Turner (2015), however, found a smaller magnitude: that a $1000 increase in benefits was necessary to incite the same 3 behavourial response as reported by Dickert-Conlin and Chandra (1999). Kureishi and Wakabayahsi (2008) similarly found the Japanese tax deduction for d...

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“…The most comprehensive study of Canadian birth seasonality was done by Trovato and Odynak (1993). They compiled data on births from vital statistics data for the years 1926 5 -1989.…”

Section: Historical Patternsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of the 2001 Extension of Paid Parental Leave Provisions on Birth Seasonality in Canada

Compton

Tedds

2016

Canadian Public Policy

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“…Since first being recognized nearly two hundred years ago (Quetelet 1835), human birth seasonality remains an important tenet of modern biological and demographical research. Today, most populations demonstrate repetitive interannual birth patterns (Roenneberg and Aschoff 1990;Lam and Miron 1991;Rosenberg 1966;Matsuda and Kahyo (1994); Trovato andOdynak 1993, 1994;Chandwani et. al 2004).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition to the possible influence of photoperiod, James (1990) finds that holiday seasons might be an important factor in seasonality. Trovato and Odynak (1993) as well as Cesario (2002) cite the possible influence of the "Christmas effect" on conceptions. Cowgill (1966) considers increased urbanization as a possible determinant of seasonality.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Canadian birth seasonality and its possible association with seasonal brightness

Cummings

2012

CSP

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This paper tests whether atmospheric brightness is related to Canadian birth seasonality ten-eleven months earlier. Births and visibility (brightness) are correlated nation-wide and in nine provinces/cities. For the national correlation, r=0.928. Therefore, seasonal brightness provides a plausible explanation for inter-annual changes in seasonality, and may reconcile divergent viewpoints. Easy verification is a major strength, although underlying causality remains unknown. While these results suggest a direct association between seasonal brightness and seasonality, brightness may not be an exclusive determinant.

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“…The literature on the seasonality of births is substantial. For a review of the major theories on this topic, especially for Canada see Trovato and Odynak, 1993. In this provocative paper they theorize that a seasonality of births in Canada, and elsewhere, does indeed exist.…”

Section: C) Diarrhoeamentioning

confidence: 99%

Infant mortality in Ottawa, 1901; an historical-geographic perspective.

Mercier¹

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There are many people who have been particularly supportive in helping me complete this thesis and I would like to take this opportunity to thank them. First of all, I would like to thank my supervisor John Clarke. Despite a one year sabbatical and a topic somewhat removed from his central research interest, John has been most helpful, supportive and has shown great interest in my work. Thanks also to the faculty, staff, and students of the

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The Seasonality of Births in Canada and the Provinces, 1881-1989: Theory and Analysis

Cited by 11 publications

References 0 publications

Effects of the 2001 Extension of Paid Parental Leave Provisions on Birth Seasonality in Canada

Effects of the 2001 Extension of Paid Parental Leave Provisions on Birth Seasonality in Canada

Canadian birth seasonality and its possible association with seasonal brightness

Infant mortality in Ottawa, 1901; an historical-geographic perspective.

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