The Seasonal Snowfall Contributions of Different Snowstorm Types in Central New York State

Abstract

Located at the eastern extent of the Great Lakes snowbelt, Central New York averages some of the highest annual snowfall totals east of the Rocky Mountains. This is in large part due to the variety of snowstorms that affect the region including lake-effect storms, coastal storms, and overrunning storms. Previous estimates suggest that lake-effect snowstorms account for approximately half of the seasonal snow in the Great Lakes basin, but ignore the spatial variability that exists within the region. Therefore, this study examines the seasonal snowfall contributions of the different snowstorm types to affect Central New York. Results suggest that although lake-effect snowstorms are the dominant snowstorm type in the region, their seasonal snowfall contributions vary between 13 and 48%. Although lake-effect snowstorms produce more snow during the peak and mid-seasons, their relative contribution is greatest during the early and mid-winter seasons. Generally, higher contributions occur near the Tug Hill Plateau, with lower contributions in southern Central New York. Instead, snowfall in southern Central New York is mostly dominated by Nor'easters (16–35%), with lesser contributions from Rocky lows (14–29%). Overrunning storms that originate in Canada (e.g., Alberta clippers) and non-cyclonic storms contribute the least to seasonal snowfall totals across Central New York; however, they are often the catalyst for lake-effect snowstorms in the region, as they advect continental polar air masses that destabilize across the lake. Understanding the actual snowfall contribution from different snowstorm types is needed for future climate predictions. Since the potential trajectory of future snowfall varies according to the type of storm, climate models must accurately predict the type of storm that is producing the snow.

Intra‐annual snowfall variability in the central United States

“…Broadly across the U.S., snowfall totals decreased during the second half of the 20th century, particularly in the Pacific Northwest where decreases exceeding 1% of snowfall per year were observed (Kluver et al, 2017; Kunkel et al, 2009). Elsewhere, long‐term trends in the Great Lakes region suggest increasing snowfall with time, where snowfall from lake‐effect processes regularly enhance snowfall totals (Burnett et al, 2003; Hartnett, 2021). However, some research in the Great Lakes region indicates a trend reversal in snowfall totals since the 1970s/1980s towards decreasing lake‐effect snowfall (Bard & Kristovich, 2012; Hartnett et al, 2014; Suriano & Leathers, 2017).…”