The Season of Birth in Man

Cowgill, U. M.

doi:10.2307/2796349

“…The Cowgill (1966) and Halli (1989) results are confirmed in two Canadian studies based on vital statistics data. Werschler and Halli (1992) use birth data from Canadian vital statistics for the period 1980-1989 (excluding the territories) and find further support for a spring peak in Canada.…”

Section: Historical Patternssupporting

confidence: 58%

“…The seminal paper in this field is Cowgill (1966), which included Canada in a large international comparison of birth seasonality. Cowgill notes a spring (April-June) peak of births in Canada along with a small secondary peak in September.…”

Section: Historical Patternsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of the 2001 Extension of Paid Parental Leave Provisions on Birth Seasonality in Canada

Compton

¹

,

Tedds

²

2016

Canadian Public Policy

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It is well known that there exists a strong seasonal pattern in births and that the pattern differs across geographic regions. While historically this seasonal pattern has been linked to exogenous factors, modern birth seasonality patterns can also be explained by purposive choice. If birth month of a child is at least partially chosen by the parents then, by extension, it can also be expected that this can be influenced by anything that changes the costs and benefits associated with that choice, including public policy. This paper explores the effect that the 2001 extension of paid parental leave benefits had on birth seasonality in Canada. Overall we find strong results that the pattern of birth seasonality in Canada changed after 2001, with a notable fall in spring births and an increase in late summer and early fall births. We discuss the potential effects of this unintended consequence, including those related to health and development, educational preparedness and outcomes, and econometric modelling. IntroductionIt is well known that there exists a strong seasonal pattern in births and that the pattern differs across geographic regions. 1 This display of birth seasonality has been linked to such exogenous factors as the photoperiod, climate, holidays, nutrition, urbanization, and other sociocultural and environmental factors. 2 More recently, researchers have been documenting changes in the historical seasonal patterns within countries since the advent of contraception, suggesting that modern birth seasonality patterns can also be explained by purposive choice (e.g. Van de Kaa 1987, Werschler & Halli 1992, Bobak & Gjonca 2001, Cassels 2002, Haandrikman & Van Wissen 2008. If birth month of a child is at least partially purposefully chosen by the parents then, by extension, it can also be expected that this can be influenced by anything that changes the costs and benefits associated with that choice, including public policy.There is some evidence to suggest that the timing of births can be influenced by public policy. Several studies have examined whether the delivery date of children, either delayed or expedited, is influenced by that tax treatment of children. The seminal work by Dickert-Conlin and Chandra (1999) considered the U.S. child tax benefit system that granted a whole year of tax relief to an individual or family that had a child in that tax year, even if the child was born on December 31. The authors found that such a system provided incentives for more children to be born in the last week of December rather than the first week of January; namely that a $50 increase in benefits led to a 1.4 percentage point increase in the probability of a December birth.Using a more comprehensive data source, LaLumia, Sallee, and Turner (2015), however, found a smaller magnitude: that a $1000 increase in benefits was necessary to incite the same 3 behavourial response as reported by Dickert-Conlin and Chandra (1999). Kureishi and Wakabayahsi (2008) similarly found the Japanese tax deduction for d...

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“…Subsequent research has focused on either a few locations over long time periods, or many locations over short time periods. Collectively, these studies identified that northern and southern states have differences in their seasonal birth amplitude [32][33][34][35]37,38] and birth/conception minima [32,[38][39][40]. Studies of births in Africa and Asia have been sparse, but seasonal peak-trough differences in conception ranging from 11% to 64% have been documented in Africa and 8-58% in Asia [36].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Some precedent has been set in the field of demography, with seasonal variation in human births first documented in the early 1800s [30,31] and currently recognized as a global characteristic of humans [32][33][34][35][36]. Early studies of vital statistics in various United States regions established a national-level seasonal pattern of births with troughs in the spring and peaks in autumn [35,37]. Subsequent research has focused on either a few locations over long time periods, or many locations over short time periods.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Human birth seasonality: latitudinal gradient and interplay with childhood disease dynamics

Martinez

¹

,

Bakker

²

,

King

³

et al. 2014

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More than a century of ecological studies have demonstrated the importance of demography in shaping spatial and temporal variation in population dynamics. Surprisingly, the impact of seasonal recruitment on infectious disease systems has received much less attention. Here, we present data encompassing 78 years of monthly natality in the USA, and reveal pronounced seasonality in birth rates, with geographical and temporal variation in both the peak birth timing and amplitude. The timing of annual birth pulses followed a latitudinal gradient, with northern states exhibiting spring/summer peaks and southern states exhibiting autumn peaks, a pattern we also observed throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, the amplitude of United States birth seasonality was more than twofold greater in southern states versus those in the north. Next, we examined the dynamical impact of birth seasonality on childhood disease incidence, using a mechanistic model of measles. Birth seasonality was found to have the potential to alter the magnitude and periodicity of epidemics, with the effect dependent on both birth peak timing and amplitude. In a simulation study, we fitted an susceptible-exposed-infectedrecovered model to simulated data, and demonstrated that ignoring birth seasonality can bias the estimation of critical epidemiological parameters. Finally, we carried out statistical inference using historical measles incidence data from New York City. Our analyses did not identify the predicted systematic biases in parameter estimates. This may be owing to the well-known frequency-locking between measles epidemics and seasonal transmission rates, or may arise from substantial uncertainty in multiple model parameters and estimation stochasticity.

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“…Halli (1989), the first study to focus exclusively on Canada, uses data from the 1984 Canadian Fertility Survey (CFS) to support Cowgill's findings, documenting a spring peak in births in Canada. However, the CFS survey is based on a small sample of women, relying on self-reported information.The Cowgill (1966) and Halli (1989) …”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of the 2001 Extension of Paid Parental Leave Provisions on Birth Seasonality in Canada

Compton

¹

,

Tedds

²

2015

SSRN Journal

1

0

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It is well known that there exists a strong seasonal pattern in births and that the pattern differs across geographic regions. While historically this seasonal pattern has been linked to exogenous factors, modern birth seasonality patterns can also be explained by purposive choice. If birth month of a child is at least partially chosen by the parents then, by extension, it can also be expected that this can be influenced by anything that changes the costs and benefits associated with that choice, including public policy. This paper explores the effect that the 2001 extension of paid parental leave benefits had on birth seasonality in Canada. Overall we find strong results that the pattern of birth seasonality in Canada changed after 2001, with a notable fall in spring births and an increase in late summer and early fall births. We discuss the potential effects of this unintended consequence, including those related to health and development, educational preparedness and outcomes, and econometric modelling. IntroductionIt is well known that there exists a strong seasonal pattern in births and that the pattern differs across geographic regions. 1 This display of birth seasonality has been linked to such exogenous factors as the photoperiod, climate, holidays, nutrition, urbanization, and other sociocultural and environmental factors. 2 More recently, researchers have been documenting changes in the historical seasonal patterns within countries since the advent of contraception, suggesting that modern birth seasonality patterns can also be explained by purposive choice (e.g. Van de Kaa 1987, Werschler & Halli 1992, Bobak & Gjonca 2001, Cassels 2002, Haandrikman & Van Wissen 2008. If birth month of a child is at least partially purposefully chosen by the parents then, by extension, it can also be expected that this can be influenced by anything that changes the costs and benefits associated with that choice, including public policy.There is some evidence to suggest that the timing of births can be influenced by public policy. Several studies have examined whether the delivery date of children, either delayed or expedited, is influenced by that tax treatment of children. The seminal work by Dickert-Conlin and Chandra (1999) considered the U.S. child tax benefit system that granted a whole year of tax relief to an individual or family that had a child in that tax year, even if the child was born on December 31. The authors found that such a system provided incentives for more children to be born in the last week of December rather than the first week of January; namely that a $50 increase in benefits led to a 1.4 percentage point increase in the probability of a December birth.Using a more comprehensive data source, LaLumia, Sallee, and Turner (2015), however, found a smaller magnitude: that a $1000 increase in benefits was necessary to incite the same 3 behavourial response as reported by Dickert-Conlin and Chandra (1999). Kureishi and Wakabayahsi (2008) similarly found the Japanese tax deduction for d...

show abstract

The Season of Birth in Man

Cited by 49 publications

References 0 publications

Effects of the 2001 Extension of Paid Parental Leave Provisions on Birth Seasonality in Canada

Effects of the 2001 Extension of Paid Parental Leave Provisions on Birth Seasonality in Canada

Human birth seasonality: latitudinal gradient and interplay with childhood disease dynamics

Effects of the 2001 Extension of Paid Parental Leave Provisions on Birth Seasonality in Canada

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