The scourge of Asian Flu: in utero exposure to pandemic influenza and the development of a cohort of British children

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of in utero exposure to the Asian influenza pandemic of 1957 upon physical and cognitive development in childhood. Outcome data is provided by the National Child Development Study (NCDS), a panel study of a cohort of British children who were all potentially exposed in the womb. Epidemic effects are identified using geographic variation in a surrogate measure of the epidemic. Results indicate significant detrimental effects of the epidemic upon birth weight and height at 7 and 11, but only for the offspring of mother's with certain health characteristics. By contrast, the impact of the epidemic on childhood cognitive test scores is more general: test scores are reduced at the mean, and effects remain constant across maternal health and socioeconomic indicators.Taken together, our results point to multiple channels linking foetal health shocks to childhood outcomes.JEL Classification: I12, I29, D13

The socio-economic determinants of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic

“…National health statistics: The physical and mental state of a person play an important role in the degree to which the individual is susceptible to a disease. It is expected that a nation composed of unhealthy individuals should also experience greater consequences of an emergent epidemics [29][30][31][32]. Specifically, metabolic disorders such as diabetes may intensify pandemic complications [33,34], whereas it has been observed that communicable diseases account for the majority of deaths in 5 complex emergencies [35].…”

Armed conflict and birth weight: Evidence from the al-Aqsa Intifada

“…If, for instance, a child was born between October 1 and 15, then 9-6 months before birth was calculated as the total number of fatalities that occurred in their district of residence during the months of January, February, March, and April. 8 If, for instance, a child was 4 Other factors associated with low birth weight include maternal smoking (Andres and Day, 2000) and influenza infection (Kelly, 2009;Mendez-Figueroa et al, 2011;Pierce et al, 2011). Kelly (2009) found that the 1957-58 influenza pandemic in Great Britain led to decreased birth weight among children born to mothers who smoked prior to becoming pregnant and among children born to mothers who were less than 153 cm tall.…”

“…8 If, for instance, a child was 4 Other factors associated with low birth weight include maternal smoking (Andres and Day, 2000) and influenza infection (Kelly, 2009;Mendez-Figueroa et al, 2011;Pierce et al, 2011). Kelly (2009) found that the 1957-58 influenza pandemic in Great Britain led to decreased birth weight among children born to mothers who smoked prior to becoming pregnant and among children born to mothers who were less than 153 cm tall. Unfortunately, the PDHS did not ask mothers about their tobacco use prior to or during pregnancy, nor did it ask about influenza infection or height.…”

The Effects of In Utero Exposure to Influenza on Birth and Infant Outcomes in the US

“…Not all of the effects of in utero exposure to influenza are identified; there are possible latent health, educational, and labor effects (Almond and Currie 2011;Kelly 2011;Schwandt 2018). For instance, using a twin, fixed-effects analysis, Black et al (2007) find that a 10 percent increase in birthweight increases the high school completion rate by a little less than one percentage point and increases full-time earnings by 1 percent.…”