The Scientific Foundations of Forecasting Magnetospheric Space Weather

Eastwood, J. P.; Nakamura, R.; Turc, Lucile; Mejnertsen, L.; Hesse, M.

doi:10.1007/s11214-017-0399-8

Cited by 39 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 214 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Extending between the bow shock and the magnetopause, the magnetosheath houses shocked solar wind plasma, which has been compressed and heated at the shock crossing. At the interface between the solar wind and the magnetosphere, the magnetosheath regulates the processes which transfer momentum and energy from the former to the latter and thus plays a key role in solar wind-magnetosphere coupling (Pulkkinen et al, 2016;Eastwood et al, 2017). Understanding and accurate modelling of this coupling therefore call for an in-depth knowledge of magnetosheath properties and their dependence on upstream solar wind parameters.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Asymmetries in the Earth's dayside magnetosheath: results from global hybrid-Vlasov simulations

Turc¹,

Tarvus²,

Dimmock³

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Bounded by the bow shock and the magnetopause, the magnetosheath forms the interface between solar wind and magnetospheric plasmas and regulates solar wind-magnetosphere coupling. Previous works have revealed pronounced dawn-dusk asymmetries in the magnetosheath properties. The dependence of these asymmetries on the upstream parameters remains however largely unknown. One of the main sources of these asymmetries is the bow shock configuration, which is typically quasi-parallel on the dawn side and quasi-perpendicular on the dusk side of the terrestrial magnetosheath because of the Parker spiral orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) at Earth. Most of these previous studies rely on collections of spacecraft measurements associated with a wide range of upstream conditions which are processed in order to obtain average values of the magnetosheath parameters. In this work, we use a different approach and quantify the magnetosheath asymmetries in global hybrid-Vlasov simulations performed with the Vlasiator model. We concentrate on three parameters: the magnetic field strength, the plasma density and the flow velocity. We find that the Vlasiator model reproduces accurately the polarity of the asymmetries, but that their level tends to be higher than in spacecraft measurements, probably because the magnetosheath parameters are obtained from a single set of upstream conditions in the simulation, making the asymmetries more prominent. We investigate how the asymmetries change when the angle between the IMF and the Sun-Earth line is reduced and when the Alfven Mach number decreases. We find that a more radial IMF results in a stronger magnetic field asymmetry and a larger variability of the magnetosheath density. In contrast, a lower Alfven Mach number leads to a reduced magnetic field asymmetry and a decrease in the variability of the magnetosheath density and velocity, the latter likely due to weaker foreshock processes. Our results highlight the strong impact of the foreshock on global magnetosheath properties, in particular on the magnetosheath density, which is extremely sensitive to transient foreshock processes.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Asymmetries in the Earth's dayside magnetosheath: results from global hybrid-Vlasov simulations

Turc¹,

Tarvus²,

Dimmock³

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Although space weather generates a multitude of impacts and risk factors, geomagnetic activity is by far the most relevant for power distribution systems. The Earth's magnetic field forms the magnetosphere, whose dynamics are strongly driven by the solar wind (e.g., Eastwood, Nakamura, et al, 2017). This mainly depends on the strength and orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field and the solar wind speed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the Economic Value of Space Weather Forecasting for Power Grids: An Exploratory Study

et al. 2018

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

An accurate understanding of space weather socioeconomic impact is fundamental to the development of appropriate operational services, forecasting capabilities, and mitigation strategies. One way to approach this problem is by developing physics‐based models and frameworks that can lead to a bottom‐up estimate of risk and likely impact. Here we describe the development of a new framework to assess the economic impact of space weather on power distribution networks and the supply of electricity. In particular, we focus on the phenomenon of the geomagnetic substorm, which is relatively localized in time and space, and occurs multiple times with varying severity during a geomagnetic storm. The framework uses the AE index to characterize substorm severity, and the impact of the substorm is modulated by the resilience of the power grid and the nature of available forecast. Possible scenarios for substorm sequences during a 1‐in‐10‐, a 1‐in‐30‐, and a 1‐in‐100‐year geomagnetic storm events are generated based on the 2003, 1989, and 1859 geomagnetic storms. Economic impact, including international spill over, can then be calculated using standard techniques, based on the duration and the geographical footprint of the power outage. Illustrative calculations are made for the European sector, for a variety of forecast and resilience scenarios. However, currently available data are highly regionally inhomogeneous, frustrating attempts to define an overall global economic impact at the present time.

show abstract

“…The Earth and its protective magnetic field, the terrestrial magnetosphere, are embedded in the solar wind (Dungey, 1961;Forbes & Speiser, 1971). Energy and momentum transfer from the solar wind to the magnetosphere ultimately drive the dynamics of the coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere system (Eastwood et al, 2017;Milan et al, 2017). A wide range of umbrella terms for the physics of the coupled Solar-Terrestrial environment exist, and from its emergence in the 1950s and 1960s (Cade & Chan-Park, 2015) the term "space weather" has grown increasingly popular in recent years.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Challenges and Opportunities in Magnetospheric Space Weather Prediction

Morley

2020

Space Weather

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Space Weather is the study of the dynamics of the coupled Solar‐Terrestrial environment, as these dynamics impact technological systems and human activity. This paper reviews a selection of the advances, challenges, and new opportunities for magnetospheric space weather, and while the focus is on specific phenomena, many other aspects of space weather will have similar challenges and needs. As a scientific field with direct applications, the field of space weather is partly driven by imperatives from both policy and operations. We provide an introduction to some of the context in which the field exists and discuss how this might shape future developments and norms within the space weather enterprise. We briefly examine benchmarking, as a policy and operationally driven activity, as it provides immediate societal relevance and an opportunity to stretch scientific understanding. As numerical space weather prediction now becomes routine, and exascale computing is in the near future, we identify challenges relating to computational expense and big data, capturing and accounting for uncertainties, and specification of boundary conditions. Here, as with the observations supporting numerical space weather prediction, the key challenge lies in extending the lead time of predictions. We also discuss the role of data, particularly in regard to model validation and empirical modeling. Due to the growing societal impact of space weather, we also examine the relationships between space weather and its terrestrial counterpart and look at the importance of continuous evaluation, monitoring progress in predictive capability, and communication with researchers, forecasters, and end users.

show abstract

The Scientific Foundations of Forecasting Magnetospheric Space Weather

Cited by 39 publications

References 214 publications

Asymmetries in the Earth's dayside magnetosheath: results from global hybrid-Vlasov simulations

Asymmetries in the Earth's dayside magnetosheath: results from global hybrid-Vlasov simulations

Quantifying the Economic Value of Space Weather Forecasting for Power Grids: An Exploratory Study

Challenges and Opportunities in Magnetospheric Space Weather Prediction

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About