The Rupture Process and Location of the 2003 Zemmouri–Boumerdes Earthquake (Mw 6.8) Inferred from Seismic and Geodetic Data

Probabilistic tsunami forecasting for early warning

“…The maximum near-coast wave amplitude simulated from finite-faults models (red lines) generally falls within PTF's inner confidence intervals (defined through the 5-95th percentile interval), and the means (red and black solid lines) are highly clustered (we note that PTF distributions are not necessarily Gaussians and percentiles are here used to define confidence intervals). This agreement indicates that, while our PTF implementation simplifies the source representation (since NEAMTHM18 scenarios use uniform slip for crustal faults), the source variability in the PTF ensemble and the log-normal distribution we use to quantify the uncertainty embed the tsunami source uncertainty, as quantified by the range of available finite-fault models 46,[78][79][80][81][82][83][84] .…”

“…Several moment tensors and finite-fault model estimates are available in the literature (Supplementary Table 3). A spatially homogeneous tsunami dataset for the test can be obtained simulating the tsunami from such available finite-fault models [78][79][80][81][82][83][84] , retrieved by separate or joint seismic and geodetic data inversion (details in Supplementary Note 4). These data collectively sample our best assessment of the epistemic uncertainty of the source process almost two decades after the earthquake.…”