The roles of atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature in UK surface climate

Fereday, David; Knight, Jeff

doi:10.1002/asl.1139

Cited by 2 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 58 publications

(66 reference statements)

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“…For monthly means, reconstructed England temperatures show average correlations with the model temperatures of 0.73, 0.70, and 0.66 for June, July and August, with precipitation correlations in the range 0.8–0.9 for all DJF‐MAM‐JJA months. A substantial proportion of England temperature and precipitation variance is therefore circulation‐related, consistent with Fereday and Knight (2022).…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 81%

“…Conversely, circulation contributes to dry DJF-MAM-JJA throughout, with almost all extreme dry seasons in the lowest 25% of circulation-related precipitation. This is again consistent with Fereday and Knight (2022), who found that historical UK precipitation is strongly driven by atmospheric circulation. Unlike temperature, there is little trend in DJF-MAM-JJA precipitation, with wetter winters balancing drier summers.…”

Section: Analysis Linking Hot and Dry Conditions With Atmospheric Cir...supporting

confidence: 92%

“…UK temperature and precipitation are strongly driven by atmospheric circulation (e.g., Fereday & Knight, 2022 and references therein). Here, we investigate the importance of circulation for hot and dry extreme events (such as 1976) in the current and future climate.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Multiperspective view of the 1976 drought–heatwave event and its changing likelihood

Kendon,

Ciavarella,

McCarthy

et al. 2023

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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Abstract1976 was one of the most acute droughts in the UK, exceptional due to the compounding effects of low rainfall and hot summer temperatures. In this study, we provide a multi‐perspective view of the likelihood of a 1976‐like compound event occurring now and into the future. We find a high level of consistency in the messages emerging across a range of different approaches and climate modelling tools, from convection‐permitting climate projections to decadal hindcasts and global coupled model attribution ensembles. 1976 summer‐average temperatures remain, at the time of writing, amongst the highest on record, but with warming are becoming increasingly common. The 9‐month rainfall deficit to August 1976 was incredibly rare. Analysis here indicates that compound extremes like 1976 are expected to occur on timescales of hundreds to thousands of years in the present‐day climate, decreasing slightly into the future. The probability remains very small even if we account for favourable sea surface temperatures and atmospheric circulation that occurred in 1976. Similar but less severe events with a 1% chance of occurring in the present‐day are 5‐times more frequent from the 2040s under RCP8.5. The occurrence of such compound events is significantly (up to an order of magnitude) higher than expected if temperature and rainfall extremes occurred independently. In general, differences in likelihood estimates between approaches can begin to be understood from how dependence between variables is handled, differences in bias correction, and different levels of conditioning (i.e., the probability given particular atmospheric or ocean state). The appropriate choice of conditioning very much depends on the question being asked and its unconscious use may lead to apparent contradictions. Parallels can be drawn between 1976 and the recent summer 2022, and results here suggest that with hotter summers we should be prepared for more severe droughts like 1976 in the future.This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 81%

Section: Analysis Linking Hot and Dry Conditions With Atmospheric Cir...supporting

confidence: 92%

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Multiperspective view of the 1976 drought–heatwave event and its changing likelihood

Kendon,

Ciavarella,

McCarthy

et al. 2023

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

Self Cite

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Influences on North‐Atlantic summer climate from the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation

Knight,

Scaife

2024

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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Seasonal‐range predictability of summer climate in northwestern Europe is generally considered to be low. This is an increasing issue given the worsening impact of summer heatwaves, droughts and intense convective rainfall in a rapidly changing climate. In wintertime, predictive skill in the region is derived from a variety of sources, not least teleconnections with the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Summer ENSO teleconnections, however, are often considered to be negligible. In this paper, we revisit the topic of summer teleconnections between ENSO and the North Atlantic‐European region. We build on previous work identifying upper tropospheric responses to tropical forcing, since dynamical teleconnections are most apparent at this level. Our results confirm that significantly increased geopotential heights are found stretching over the North‐Atlantic region and into western Europe when La Niña conditions are prevalent during summer. This pattern is part of the previously identified ‘circumglobal’ pattern of wider northern‐hemisphere height changes. We then look for these responses in a range of climate models used in operational seasonal prediction. While parts of the circumglobal pattern are weakly present, none of them produce the response seen over the North Atlantic, even when the effect of sampling on the observed teleconnection is accounted for. We additionally estimate the contribution of the previous (wintertime) phase of ENSO on the following summer. We find a significant delayed response, particularly in heights, to the earlier phase. The combination of the delayed and current responses gives height anomalies that are larger, on average, when ENSO changes phase from winter to summer. Finally, we show that a modest level of regional prediction skill from ENSO does exist. There is a contribution to skill in heights from the previous ENSO phase, but the equivalent contribution to the skill of zonal winds is smaller.

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The roles of atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature in UK surface climate

Cited by 2 publications

References 58 publications

Multiperspective view of the 1976 drought–heatwave event and its changing likelihood

Multiperspective view of the 1976 drought–heatwave event and its changing likelihood

Influences on North‐Atlantic summer climate from the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation

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