The role of weather on the relation between influenza and influenza-like illness

Noort, S P van; Águas, Ricardo; Ballesteros, Sébastien; Gomes, M. Gabriela M.

doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2011.12.020

Cited by 67 publications

(70 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Even though absolute humidity is dependent on temperature, and is highly correlated with it, we have found that there is an added value to using temperature together with absolute humidity, suggesting that both factors are involved in modulating influenza transmission (as was also shown in Barreca & Shimshack [26]). Several studies in the past have examined long-term modelling of seasonal influenza epidemics [5][6][7][8][9][10]. Finkenstädt et al rsif.royalsocietypublishing.org J R Soc Interface 10: 20130298…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling seasonal influenza: the role of weather and punctuated antigenic drift

Yaari

Katriel

Huppert

et al. 2013

J. R. Soc. Interface.

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Seasonal influenza appears as annual oscillations in temperate regions of the world, yet little is known as to what drives these annual outbreaks and what factors are responsible for their inter-annual variability. Recent studies suggest that weather variables, such as absolute humidity, are the key drivers of annual influenza outbreaks. The rapid, punctuated, antigenic evolution of the influenza virus is another major factor. We present a new framework for modelling seasonal influenza based on a discrete-time, age-of-infection, epidemic model, which allows the calculation of the model's likelihood function in closed form. This framework may be used to perform model inference and parameter estimation rigorously. The modelling approach allows us to fit 11 years of Israeli influenza data, with the best models fitting the data with unusually high correlations in which r . 0.9. We show that using actual weather to modulate influenza transmission rate gives better results than using the inter-annual means of the weather variables, providing strong support for the role of weather in shaping the dynamics of influenza. This conclusion remains valid even when incorporating a more realistic depiction of the decay of immunity at the population level, which allows for discrete changes in immunity from year to year.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling seasonal influenza: the role of weather and punctuated antigenic drift

Yaari

Katriel

Huppert

et al. 2013

J. R. Soc. Interface.

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“…For the United States, absolute humidity was identified as a critical determinant of 24 observed influenza mortality (Barreca and Shimshack, 2012) and anomalously low humidity levels were found to precede the onset of increased wintertime influenza-related mortality in the United States by several weeks (Davis et al, 2012;Shaman et al, 2010). The respiratory impact of low atmospheric humidity was evident in other studies in Belgium (Lander et al, 2012), China (Xiao et al, 2013), Japan (Harata et al, 2004), Israel (Yaari et al, 2010), the Netherlands and Portugal (van Noort et al, 2012), and was inferred in forensic studies of major historical influenza outbreaks in England and Wales (He et al, 2013). Yet in studies that utilized relative humidity, Zhang et al (2013) found a negative association between RSV and Rodriguez-Martinez (2015) uncovered no relationship.…”

Section: Humidity and Pulmonary Diseasementioning

confidence: 93%

Humidity: A review and primer on atmospheric moisture and human health

Davis

McGregor

Enfield

2016

Environmental Research

300

208

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Use policyThe full-text may be used and/or reproduced, and given to third parties in any format or medium, without prior permission or charge, for personal research or study, educational, or not-for-prot purposes provided that:• a full bibliographic reference is made to the original source • a link is made to the metadata record in DRO • the full-text is not changed in any way The full-text must not be sold in any format or medium without the formal permission of the copyright holders.Please consult the full DRO policy for further details. cases when the proximity to saturation is not medically relevant. Care must be taken in averaging certain humidity variables daily or seasonally to avoid statistical biasing associated with variables that are inherently diurnal through their relationship to temperature.

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“…The virus literature featured a combination of laboratory testing (Akers et al, 1966;Lowen et al, 2007;McDevitt et al, 2010;Noti et al, 2013;de la Noue et al, 2014), epidemiology (Shaman and Kohn, 2009;Shaman et al, 2010;Barreca and Shimshack, 2012;van Noort et al, 2012;Jaakkola et al, 2014), modeling (Shaman and Kohn, 2009;Yang and Marr, 2011), and review papers (Morawska, 2006;Brankston et al, 2007;Weber and Stilianakis, 2008;Tang, 2009;Memarzadeh, 2012;; test conditions are shown in Figure 4. The review paper by Weber and Stilianakis (2008) identified three methods of transmission: droplet (sneezing or coughing), airborne, and contact; the review paper by Brankston et al (2007) also discussed influenza survival and transmission.…”

Section: Virusesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Update of the scientific evidence for specifying lower limit relative humidity levels for comfort, health, and indoor environmental quality in occupied spaces (RP-1630)

Derby

Hamehkasi

Eckels

et al. 2016

Science and Technology for the Built Environment

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Nearly 600 papers were located in citation and keyword searches regarding the effects of humidity on comfort, health, and indoor environmental quality (IEQ). Of these, around 70 papers reported the effects of low humidity (RH≤40%) and were analyzed in detail. Information in some categories was well chronicled, while other categories had significant knowledge gaps.Low humidity decreased house dust mite allergens. Due to different envelopes, generalizations could not be made for all bacteria and viruses. However, lower humidity increased virus survival for influenza. For comfort, low humidity had little effect on thermal comfort, but skin dryness, eye irritation, and static electricity increased as humidity decreased. For IEQ, low humidity had non-uniform effects on volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions and perceived indoor air quality. Across many low humidity studies, ventilation rates and exposure times were noted as confounding variables. A majority of studies that used human subjects utilized exposure times of three hours or less with adult subjects; few studies used children, adolescents, or elderly subjects.

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The role of weather on the relation between influenza and influenza-like illness

Cited by 67 publications

References 22 publications

Modelling seasonal influenza: the role of weather and punctuated antigenic drift

Modelling seasonal influenza: the role of weather and punctuated antigenic drift

Humidity: A review and primer on atmospheric moisture and human health

Update of the scientific evidence for specifying lower limit relative humidity levels for comfort, health, and indoor environmental quality in occupied spaces (RP-1630)

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