The Role of Volcanic Activity in Climate and Global Change

Stenchikov, Georgiy L.

doi:10.1016/b978-0-444-63524-2.00026-9

Cited by 16 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 120 publications

(123 reference statements)

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“…To answer the above questions, we employ a global coupled ocean‐atmosphere GCM, CM2.1, developed by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) [ Delworth et al , ], which was used for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), as well as in our previous studies on the volcanic impact on atmospheric and oceanic circulations involving the Arctic Oscillation and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation [ Stenchikov et al , ; Stenchikov , ; Stenchikov et al , ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 66%

“…Volcanic radiative impacts are important climate drivers on multiple time scales [ Robock , ; Stenchikov , ; Timmreck , ; Meehl et al , ; Timmreck et al , ]. Large explosive volcanic eruptions inject sulfur‐rich gases into the stratosphere [ Newhall and Self , ; Schnetzler et al , ], where they get converted into sulfate aerosols [ Turco et al , ; Lamb , ; LeGrande et al , ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It was confirmed recently that the Tambora eruption, which produced about 3 times more sulfur dioxide than Pinatubo and caused the “Year without a summer” in 1816, was also accompanied by an El Niño [ Raible et al , ]. The nature of these relationships is not well understood, but they have dramatic consequences for the entire planet—thus, it is important to better investigate the mechanism of volcanic impacts on ENSO [ Stenchikov , ; Li et al , ; Timmreck , ; Wittenberg et al , ], which could explain some of its temporal modulation in historical and paleorecords, and their relation to internal ENSO dynamics [ Emile‐Geay et al , ; Vecchi and Wittenberg , ; Emile‐Geay et al , ; McGregor et al , ; Ogata et al , ; Atwood et al , ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of a Pinatubo‐size volcanic eruption on ENSO

et al. 2017

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Observations and model simulations of the climate responses to strong explosive low‐latitude volcanic eruptions suggest a significant increase in the likelihood of El Niño during the eruption and posteruption years, though model results have been inconclusive and have varied in magnitude and even sign. In this study, we test how this spread of responses depends on the initial phase of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the eruption year and on the eruption's seasonal timing. We employ the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CM2.1 global coupled general circulation model to investigate the impact of the Pinatubo 1991 eruption, assuming that in 1991 ENSO would otherwise be in central or eastern Pacific El Niño, La Niña, or neutral phases. We obtain statistically significant El Niño responses in a year after the eruption for all cases except La Niña, which shows no response in the eastern equatorial Pacific. The eruption has a weaker impact on eastern Pacific El Niños than on central Pacific El Niños. We find that the ocean dynamical thermostat and (to a lesser extent) wind changes due to land‐ocean temperature gradients are the main feedbacks affecting El Niño development after the eruption. The El Niño responses to eruptions occurring in summer are more pronounced than for winter and spring eruptions. That the climate response depends on eruption season and initial ENSO phase may help to reconcile apparent inconsistencies among previous studies.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 66%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of a Pinatubo‐size volcanic eruption on ENSO

et al. 2017

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“…Volcanic activity can vary strongly in intensity, ranging from passive degassing volcanoes emitting sulfur into the lower troposphere to explosive eruptions that can release large amounts of ash and gases high into the stratosphere (e.g., Oppenheimer et al, 2011). It is well established that volcanic eruptions can impact Earth's climate system through changes in the energy balance (e.g., Robock, 2000;Schmidt et al, 2012;Stenchikov, 2016;Schmidt et al, 2018), which can affect the hydrological cycle (e.g., Trenberth and Dai, 2007) and atmospheric dynamics (e.g., Shindell et al, 2004). Furthermore, volcanic air pollution events can lead to a severe and spatially widespread health hazard and increase excess mortality (e.g., Schmidt et al, 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The 2019 Raikoke volcanic eruption: Part 1 Dispersion model simulations and satellite retrievals of volcanic sulfur dioxide

Leeuw¹,

Schmidt²,

Witham³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Volcanic eruptions can cause significant disruption to society and numerical models are crucial for forecasting the dispersion of erupted material. Here we assess the skill and limitations of the Met Office’s Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment (NAME) in simulating the dispersion of the sulfur dioxide (SO2) cloud from the 21–22 June 2019 eruption of the Raikoke volcano (48.3° N, 153.2° E). The eruption emitted around 1.5 &pm; 0.2 Tg of SO2, which represents the largest volcanic emission of SO2 into the stratosphere since the 2011 Nabro eruption. We simulate the temporal evolution of the volcanic SO2 cloud across the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and compare our model simulations to high-resolution SO2 measurements from the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) and the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) satellite SO2 products. We show that NAME accurately simulates the observed location and horizontal extent of the SO2 cloud during the first 2–3 weeks after the eruption, but is unable, in its standard configuration, to capture the extent and precise location of very high-concentration regions within the volcanic cloud. Using the Fractional Skill Score as metric for model skill, NAME shows skill in simulating the horizontal extent of the cloud for 12–17 days after the eruption where vertical column densities (VCD) of SO2 (in Dobson Units, DU) are above 1 DU. For SO2 VCDs above 20 DU, which are predominantly observed as small-scale features within the SO2 cloud, the model shows skill on the order of 2–4 days only. The lower skill for these high-concentration regions is partly explained by the model-simulated SO2 cloud in NAME being too diffuse compared to TROPOMI retrievals. Reducing the standard diffusion parameters used in NAME by a factor of four results in a slightly increased model skill during the first five days of the simulation, but on longer timescales the simulated SO2 cloud remains too diffuse when compared to TROPOMI measurements. We find that the temporal evolution of the NH-mean SO2 mass burden simulated by NAME strongly depends on the fraction of SO2 mass emitted into the lower stratosphere, which is uncertain for the 2019 Raikoke eruption. When emitting 0.9–1.1 Tg of SO2 into the lower stratosphere (11–18 km) and 0.4–0.7 Tg into the upper troposphere (8–11 km), both NAME and TROPOMI show a similar peak in SO2 mass burden (1.4–1.6 Tg of SO2) with an average SO2 e-folding time of 14–15 days in the NH. Our work demonstrates the large potential of using high-resolution satellite retrievals to identify and rectify limitations in dispersion models like NAME, which will ultimately help to improve dispersion modelling efforts of volcanic SO2 clouds.

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“…Large equatorial volcanic eruptions can significantly perturb the Earth's climate (Robock, ; Stenchikov, ; Timmreck, ). These perturbations can be separated from the internal variability of the system.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional Effects of the Mount Pinatubo Eruption on the Middle East and the Red Sea

Osipov

Stenchikov

2017

JGR Oceans

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The 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo had dramatic effects on the regional climate in the Middle East. Though acknowledged, these effects have not been thoroughly studied. To fill this gap and to advance understanding of the mechanisms that control variability in the Middle East's regional climate, we simulated the impact of the 1991 Pinatubo eruption using a regional coupled ocean‐atmosphere modeling system set for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) domain. We used the Coupled Ocean‐Atmosphere‐Wave‐Sediment Transport (COAWST) framework, which couples the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) model with the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS). We modified the WRF model to account for the radiative effect of volcanic aerosols. Our coupled ocean‐atmosphere simulations verified by available observations revealed strong perturbations in the energy balance of the Red Sea, which drove thermal and circulation responses. Our modeling approach allowed us to separate changes in the atmospheric circulation caused by the impact of the volcano from direct regional radiative cooling from volcanic aerosols. The atmospheric circulation effect was significantly stronger than the direct volcanic aerosols effect. We found that the Red Sea response to the Pinatubo eruption was stronger and qualitatively different from that of the global ocean system. Our results suggest that major volcanic eruptions significantly affect the climate in the Middle East and the Red Sea and should be carefully taken into account in assessments of long‐term climate variability and warming trends in MENA and the Red Sea.

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The Role of Volcanic Activity in Climate and Global Change

Cited by 16 publications

References 120 publications

Impacts of a Pinatubo‐size volcanic eruption on ENSO

Impacts of a Pinatubo‐size volcanic eruption on ENSO

The 2019 Raikoke volcanic eruption: Part 1 Dispersion model simulations and satellite retrievals of volcanic sulfur dioxide

Regional Effects of the Mount Pinatubo Eruption on the Middle East and the Red Sea

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