The role of uncertainties in the design of international water treaties: an historical perspective

Abstract

Water is one natural resource whose management is especially susceptible to uncertainties, many of which are being exasperated by climate change. Some of these uncertainties originate from knowledge deficits in physical conditions while others relate to behavioral and social variability related to water supply and use. However, to our knowledge no quantitative analysis of how uncertainties have been translated into transboundary water treaty structures exists. The present paper partially fills this gap through an examination of how uncertainty has been reflected in basin specific transboundary treaties and how that reflection has changed over the last century. While we could identify only minor trends in the frequency with which uncertainties are mentioned in treaties, we did find two clear patterns in the strategies adopted to deal with them. First, treaties seem to adopt a portfolio approach that spreads the dangers of uncertainty by concurrently including several management strategies simultaneously. Second, there is a trend towards more openended strategies in recent decades, rather than hard codification of rules as had earlier been more common

Climate Change, Conflict, and Cooperation: Global Analysis of the Resilience of International River Treaties to Increased Water Variability

“…The authors enumerate several allocation mechanisms, which are echoed in a number of other studies (e.g. Gleick 1992;139;Wolf and Hamner, 2000;Drieschova, Fischhendler, and Giordano, 2011).…”

The global water security: an approach for multilevel governance on hydric resources

“…A paper examined 289 agreements signed between 1857 and 1999. As main results, it was identified that 60% of the documents cited some kind of uncertainty and risk (especially related to water flow, infrastructure and environment; Drieschova et al, 2011). It points out that there is already some previous guidance that supports a global pact directed to the mentioned approach.…”

Justicia del agua transfronteriza: una lectura combinada de la literatura crítica sobre la interacción del agua transfronteriza y la ‘justicia’, para el análisis y la diplomacia

“…Por supuesto, la gente rara vez se ajusta a un único conjunto de valores morales, y probablemente cualquier analista o diplomático recurriría a una serie de principios para los enfoques que aborden. Aún así, vale la pena indagar en la discrepancia en las investigaciones sobre el río Jordán -por tomar un caso extremo-que o bien se centran en intentar explicar la distribución asimétrica de agua entre los actores (por ejemplo, Messerschmid, 2011;Selby, 2013, p.19), o no la cuestionan en absoluto (por ejemplo, Drieschova et al, 2011;Feitelson y Rosenthal, 2012). Si bien la diferencia en el énfasis se puede atribuir en parte a matices y preferencias disciplinarias (Relaciones Internacionales, Geografía Política) y no se han investigado las corrientes de justicia preferidas por los autores, el punto es que un mismo acuerdo de aguas transfronterizas puede ser considerado como manifiestamente injusto desde una perspectiva, y "lo suficientemente justo" desde otra.…”