The Role of the Chief Actuary of Social Security

Explaining Bureaucratic Optimism: Theory and Evidence from U.S. Executive Agency Macroeconomic Forecasts

“…OMB and SSA publish forecasts of identical macroeconomic indicators. SSA was part of a cabinet agency from 1953 to 1994 (initially, Health Education and Welfare and, later, Heath and Human Services), but the Office of Chief Actuary maintained a close direct working relationship with the congressional committees overseeing Social Security and Medicare (Rosenblatt and DeWitt 2004). OMB and SSA each annually publish macroeconomic projections for current year outcomes and extend the forecast to 5 years into the future.…”

“…OMB and SSA each annually publish macroeconomic projections for current year outcomes and extend the forecast to 5 years into the future. Robert J. Myers held the post of Chief Actuary from 1945 to 1970 and established many of the norms of professionalism and independence that characterize this particular office (Rosenblatt and DeWitt 2004). These differences permit a test of specific expectations about the link between intertemporal decision making and 9 Decision bias is not a statistical artifact attributable to greater inaccuracy due to experiencing greater difficulty forecasting more distant future events.…”

“…The SSA, specifically the Office of the Chief Actuary, is more insulated from the president. SSA was part of a cabinet agency from 1953 to 1994 (initially, Health Education and Welfare and, later, Heath and Human Services), but the Office of Chief Actuary maintained a close direct working relationship with the congressional committees overseeing Social Security and Medicare (Rosenblatt and DeWitt 2004). In addition to differences in agency insulation, the rate of leadership turnover differs among they key agency executives largely responsible for these macroeconomic forecasts.…”

“…The Office of the Chief Actuary experiences remarkably low turnover: since 1981 two Chief Actuaries have directed the office. Robert J. Myers held the post of Chief Actuary from 1945 to 1970 and established many of the norms of professionalism and independence that characterize this particular office (Rosenblatt and DeWitt 2004).…”