The role of subjective linear orders in probabilistic inferences

Abstract

In probabilistic inferences concerning which of two objects has the larger criterion value (e.g., which of two cities has more inhabitants), participants may recognize both objects, only one, or neither. According to the mentaltoolbox approach, different decision strategies exist for each of these cases, utilizing different probabilistic cues. Possibly, however, participants use these cues to build a subjective rank order that involves all objects, irrespective of their recognition status. The decision process then simply utilizes the distance between two objects in one's subjective order. We tested the role of such linear orders in reanalyses of existing data and in a new experiment. Participants' choices and decision times were determined both by subjective rank-order distances and by the recognition status of the compared objects. To integrate these theoretically inconsistent findings, we discuss the role of the evidential difference (or the degree of conflict) between two objects.

Within-person adaptivity in frugal judgments from memory

“…First, we restricted analysis to the cities recognized by each participant because it could be argued that criterion knowledge can only be meaningfully applied to cities that are recognized. However, Pohl and Hilbig ( 2012 ) suggested that unrecognized items might also be ordered. Therefore, we also repeated these analyses, including all city names.…”