The role of storage dynamics in annual wheat prices

Schewe, Jacob; Otto, Christian; Frieler, Katja

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa678e

Cited by 31 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Shifting agriculture polewards has been considered elsewhere, but might not be always possible or feasible for adapting to increasing temperature due to land use and land suitability constraints. Measures such as change in sowing date and irrigation management, improved heat‐ and drought‐resistant cultivars, reduced trade barriers, and increased storage capacity (Schewe, Otto, & Frieler, ) will be necessary to adapt to changes in temperature and precipitation for improving food security. However, since the largest estimated yield losses and increased probability of extreme low yields occur in tropical areas (that is, in hot environment with low‐temperature seasonality) and under irrigated systems, the above‐mentioned measures would probably not be sufficient.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming

Liu

Martre

Ewert

et al. 2019

Global Change Biology

124

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Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre‐industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0°C warming above the pre‐industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi‐crop and multi‐climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by −2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5°C scenario and −2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0°C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980–2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall, and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter‐annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer—India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming <2°C on wheat production is therefore not evenly distributed and will affect regional food security across the globe as well as food prices and trade.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming

Liu

Martre

Ewert

et al. 2019

Global Change Biology

124

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“…In addition, yield variations on a national level can trigger chain reactions on the global market, leading to large increases in crop prices, such as occurred in 2008. These global fluctuations can, in turn, affect local prices and food supply in developing countries, which are not directly affected by the initial crop failure [ Ivanic and Martin , ; Headey , ; Schewe et al ., ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding the weather signal in national crop‐yield variability

et al. 2017

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Year-to-year variations in crop yields can have major impacts on the livelihoods of subsistence farmers and may trigger significant global price fluctuations, with severe consequences for people in developing countries. Fluctuations can be induced by weather conditions, management decisions, weeds, diseases, and pests. Although an explicit quantification and deeper understanding of weather-induced crop-yield variability is essential for adaptation strategies, so far it has only been addressed by empirical models. Here, we provide conservative estimates of the fraction of reported national yield variabilities that can be attributed to weather by state-of-the-art, process-based crop model simulations. We find that observed weather variations can explain more than 50% of the variability in wheat yields in Australia, Canada, Spain, Hungary, and Romania. For maize, weather sensitivities exceed 50% in seven countries, including the United States. The explained variance exceeds 50% for rice in Japan and South Korea and for soy in Argentina. Avoiding water stress by simulating yields assuming full irrigation shows that water limitation is a major driver of the observed variations in most of these countries. Identifying the mechanisms leading to crop-yield fluctuations is not only fundamental for dampening fluctuations, but is also important in the context of the debate on the attribution of loss and damage to climate change. Since process-based crop models not only account for weather influences on crop yields, but also provide options to represent human-management measures, they could become essential tools for differentiating these drivers, and for exploring options to reduce future yield fluctuations.

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“…Our analysis shows that fertilizer-driven intensification is generally possible, but would imply increasing inter-annual variability of crop yields. In this case, trade and storage networks, infrastructure and policies will have to prepare to buffer against low harvest events in individual regions in order to avoid food price volatility [ 4 ]. This will become even more important under climate change, which may increase the frequency and duration of extreme weather events [ 54 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Large perturbations in agricultural production by weather phenomena such as the 2012 drought in the US, 2010 flooding in Pakistan, 2003 heat wave in Europe, can lead to local and global price spikes of food commodities that can endanger food security, especially for low-income population shares and subsistence framers [ 2 , 3 ]. Trade and related policies such as food storage strategies can help to alleviate the negative impact of variations in agricultural crop production on food supply [ 4 ], especially in nations with the resources to access and implement these. Nonetheless, even non-subsistence farmers also strive to avoid negative impacts of weather fluctuations on their production and subsequently their income.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global patterns of crop yield stability under additional nutrient and water inputs

et al. 2018

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Agricultural production must increase to feed a growing and wealthier population, as well as to satisfy increasing demands for biomaterials and biomass-based energy. At the same time, deforestation and land-use change need to be minimized in order to preserve biodiversity and maintain carbon stores in vegetation and soils. Consequently, agricultural land use needs to be intensified in order to increase food production per unit area of land. Here we use simulations of AgMIP’s Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) phase 1 to assess implications of input-driven intensification (water, nutrients) on crop yield and yield stability, which is an important aspect in food security. We find region- and crop-specific responses for the simulated period 1980–2009 with broadly increasing yield variability under additional nitrogen inputs and stabilizing yields under additional water inputs (irrigation), reflecting current patterns of water and nutrient limitation. The different models of the GGCMI ensemble show similar response patterns, but model differences warrant further research on management assumptions, such as variety selection and soil management, and inputs as well as on model implementation of different soil and plant processes, such as on heat stress, and parameters. Higher variability in crop productivity under higher fertilizer input will require adequate buffer mechanisms in trade and distribution/storage networks to avoid food price volatility.

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The role of storage dynamics in annual wheat prices

Cited by 31 publications

References 29 publications

Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming

Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre‐industrial warming

Understanding the weather signal in national crop‐yield variability

Global patterns of crop yield stability under additional nutrient and water inputs

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