The Role of Simulation and Modeling in Disaster Management

Abstract

The threat of pandemic disaster has motivated many collaborative exercises for the purpose of preparation and evaluation. The nature of these exercises depends upon the status of pre-existing expectations for system behavior and the aims of the exercise stakeholders. The contents of this article argue that these exercises may be developed using the same approach as simulation modeling to advantage. Four levels of maturity are outlined as a guide to understanding reasonable expectations for such activity.

Authors' Response

“…Similar experiences are reported in other contexts: airport disasters, 2 biological threats in a public health preparedness, 5,6 and training of medical technicians for emergency. 3 Tabletop exercises could also be used to train different categories of participants in similar drills.…”

Disaster Preparedness and Response for the Burn Mass Casualty Incident in the Twenty-first Century

“…is routinely performed in an academic environment and numerous published surge models exist based on these systems. [30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38] Methods to test planning efforts can include (virtual) table-top exercises, functional scenarios (in which 1 or more specific components are tested), and full-scale simulation involving the physical participation of many personnel and structures. 39 In the aftermath of any disaster, it is essential to develop an after-action report (AAR) to identify successes and opportunities for improvement in which existing plans can be modified or improved based on actual experiences.…”

Disaster Planning

“…[18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26] Of these published models, several used a software product named @Risk, 27 which performs Monte Carlo simulation, whereas others used one of the products that perform discrete event simulation. Modeling is routinely done in the academic environment or by specialized software vendors.…”