Abstract. Coupled physical–biogeochemical models can fill the
spatial and temporal gap in ocean carbon observations. Challenges of
applying a coupled physical–biogeochemical model in the regional ocean
include the reasonable prescription of carbon model boundary conditions,
lack of in situ observations, and the oversimplification of certain
biogeochemical processes. In this study, we applied a coupled
physical–biogeochemical model (Regional Ocean Modelling System, ROMS) to the
Gulf of Mexico (GoM) and achieved an unprecedented 20-year high-resolution
(5 km, 1/22∘) hindcast covering the period of 2000 to 2019. The
biogeochemical model incorporated the dynamics of dissolved organic carbon
(DOC) pools and the formation and dissolution of carbonate minerals. The
biogeochemical boundaries were interpolated from NCAR's CESM2-WACCM-FV2
solution after evaluating the performance of 17 GCMs in the GoM waters. Model
outputs included carbon system variables of wide interest, such as
pCO2, pH, aragonite saturation state (ΩArag), calcite
saturation state (ΩCalc), CO2 air–sea flux, and carbon burial
rate. The model's robustness is evaluated via extensive model–data
comparison against buoys, remote-sensing-based machine learning (ML)
products, and ship-based measurements. A reassessment of air–sea CO2
flux with previous modeling and observational studies gives us confidence
that our model provides a robust and updated CO2 flux estimation, and
NGoM is a stronger carbon sink than previously reported. Model results
reveal that the GoM water has been experiencing a ∼ 0.0016 yr−1 decrease in surface pH over the past 2 decades, accompanied by a
∼ 1.66 µatm yr−1 increase in sea surface
pCO2. The air–sea CO2 exchange estimation confirms in accordance with several
previous models and ocean surface pCO2 observations that the
river-dominated northern GoM (NGoM) is a substantial carbon sink, and the
open GoM is a carbon source during summer and a carbon sink for the rest of
the year. Sensitivity experiments are conducted to evaluate the impacts of
river inputs and the global ocean via model boundaries. The NGoM carbon
system is directly modified by the enormous carbon inputs (∼ 15.5 Tg C yr−1 DIC and ∼ 2.3 Tg C yr−1 DOC) from the
Mississippi–Atchafalaya River System (MARS). Additionally,
nutrient-stimulated biological activities create a ∼ 105 times
higher particulate organic matter burial rate in NGoM sediment than in the
case without river-delivered nutrients. The carbon system condition of the
open ocean is driven by inputs from the Caribbean Sea via the Yucatan Channel
and is affected more by thermal effects than biological factors.