The role of seasonality in the spread of COVID-19 pandemic

Liu, Xiaoyue; Huang, Jianping; Li, Changyu; Zhao, Yingjie; Wang, Danfeng; Huang, Zhongwei; Yang, Kehu

doi:10.1016/j.envres.2021.110874

Cited by 215 publications

(203 citation statements)

References 71 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

193

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Kerr (et al) found no consensus on the impact of meteorological factors on COVID-19 spread in their literature review, however, they suggested existence of environmental sensitivity of COVID-19, but not as significant as non-pharmaceutical interventions and human behavior. 63 Several authors underlined that disease seasonality may exist, [64][65][66][67] including Liu (et al) who found that COVID-19 infection and mortality rates were higher in colder climates and that the cold season caused an increase in total infections, while the warm season contributed to the opposite effect. 66 Since our analysis covered a full annual cycle of COVID-19, our result suggests the possibility of seasonal variations in COVID-19 incidence.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…24 Results of clinical trials on vaccine efficacy revealed that Pfizer-BioNTech had 95% efficacy at preventing symptomatic COVID-19 infection in people without prior infection. 25 94.1% efficacy was reported for Moderna, 26 70.4% for Oxford-AstraZeneca, 27 66.5% for Johnson & Johnson 28 and 96.4% for Novavax, 29 with the latter being still under the investigation before authorization. For the prevention against a severe disease course, Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca and Novavax reported a 100% efficacy, whereas 84% was observed for Johnson & Johnson, however, the latter was tested on a broader range of countries, including the USA, South Africa and Brazil, after the new VOCs spread.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

See 1 more Smart Citation

The real-life impact of vaccination on COVID-19 mortality in Europe and Israel

Jabłońska¹,

Aballéa²,

Toumi

2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed at estimating the real-life impact of vaccination on COVID-19 mortality, with adjustment for SARS-CoV-2 variants spread and other factors across Europe and Israel. METHODS: Time series analysis of daily number of COVID-19 deaths was performed using non-linear Poisson mixed regression models. Variants' frequency, demographic, climate, health and mobility characteristics of thirty-two countries were considered as potentially relevant adjustment factors between January 2020 and April 2021. RESULTS: The analysis revealed that vaccination efficacy in terms of protection against deaths was equal to 72%, with a lower reduction of number of deaths for B.1.1.7 versus non-B.1.1.7 variants (70% and 78%, respectively). Other factors significantly related to mortality were arrivals at airports, mobility change from the pre-pandemic level and temperature. CONCLUSIONS: Our study confirms a strong effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination based on real-life public data, although lower than expected from clinical trials. This suggests the absence of indirect protection for non-vaccinated individuals. Results also show that vaccination effectiveness against mortality associated with the B.1.1.7 variant is slightly lower compared with other variants. Lastly, this analysis confirms the role of mobility reduction, within and between countries, as an effective way to reduce COVID-19 mortality and suggests the possibility of seasonal variations in COVID-19 incidence.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

The real-life impact of vaccination on COVID-19 mortality in Europe and Israel

Jabłońska¹,

Aballéa²,

Toumi

2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Recently, our choice of

has been validated by an empirical global study [79] and a modeling study [80] , particularly for Germany. Our mean value

realizes peak values of

and

in summer and winter, respectively.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of effective mitigation and prediction of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany using demographic information and spatial resolution

Kühn

Abele

Mitra

et al. 2021

Mathematical Biosciences

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are important to mitigate the spread of infectious diseases as long as no vaccination or outstanding medical treatments are available. We assess the effectiveness of the sets of non-pharmaceutical interventions that were in place during the course of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic in Germany. Our results are based on hybrid models, combining SIR-type models on local scales with spatial resolution. In order to account for the age-dependence of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), we include realistic prepandemic and recently recorded contact patterns between age groups. The implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions will occur on changed contact patterns, improved isolation, or reduced infectiousness when, e.g., wearing masks. In order to account for spatial heterogeneity, we use a graph approach and we include high-quality information on commuting activities combined with traveling information from social networks. The remaining uncertainty will be accounted for by a large number of randomized simulation runs. Based on the derived factors for the effectiveness of different non-pharmaceutical interventions over the past months, we provide different forecast scenarios for the upcoming time.

show abstract

“…The persistence of pathogens in the environment are known to be impacted by humidity, temperature, airflow, and the surface properties of fomites [57]. This, and other factors relating the effects of weather on contact rates and efficacy, may result in overall pathogen transmission having a seasonal component to it [58]. In particular, viral persistence indoors may be much greater than outdoors, with a greater proportion of indoor contacts taking place during cold or wet weather.…”

Section: Probability Of Infectionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A runtime alterable epidemic model with genetic drift, waning immunity, and vaccinations

Getz

Salter

Vissat

et al. 2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We developed an elaborated susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) individual-based model (IBM) with pathogen strain drift, waning and cross immunity, implemented as a novel Java Runtime-Alterable-Model Platform (J-RAMP). This platform allows parameter values, process formulations, and scriptable runtime drivers to be easily added at the start of simulation. It includes facility for integration into the R statistical and other data analysis platforms. We selected a set of parameter values and process descriptions relevant to the current COVID-19 pandemic. These include pathogen-specific shedding, environmental persistence, host transmission and mortality, within-host pathogen mutation and replication, adaptive social distancing, and time dependent vaccine rate and strain valency specifications. Our simulations illustrate that if waning immunity outpaces vaccination rates, then vaccination rollouts may fail to contain the most transmissible strains. Our study highlights the need for adaptive vaccination rollouts, which depend on reliable real-time monitoring and surveillance of strain proliferation and reinfection data needed to ensure that vaccines target emerging strains and constrain escape mutations. Together with such data, our platform has the potential to inform the design of vaccination programs that extirpate rather than exacerbate local outbreaks. Finally, our RAMP concept promotes the development of highly flexible models that can be easily shared among researchers and policymakers not only addressing healthcare crises, but other types of environmental crises as well.

show abstract

The role of seasonality in the spread of COVID-19 pandemic

Cited by 215 publications

References 71 publications

The real-life impact of vaccination on COVID-19 mortality in Europe and Israel

The real-life impact of vaccination on COVID-19 mortality in Europe and Israel

Assessment of effective mitigation and prediction of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany using demographic information and spatial resolution

A runtime alterable epidemic model with genetic drift, waning immunity, and vaccinations

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About