The role of production factor quality and technology diffusion in twentieth-century productivity growth

Bergeaud, Antonin; Cette, Gilbert; Lecat, Rémy

doi:10.1007/s11698-016-0149-2

Cited by 20 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 76 publications

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“…than what was observed in the 1930s, 1940s and 1950s. As documented in numerous papers, this productivity growth wave corresponds to the third industrial revolution linked to ICT (see Jorgenson, 2001, Jorgenson et al 2008, Van Ark et al, 2008, Timmer et al, 2011, Bergeaud et al, 2016and Cette, 2014 for a survey). Apart from the very short second productivity wave observed mostly in the United States (and to a lesser extent in the United Kingdom), TFP growth continued to decline dramatically in advanced economies, irrespective of the original TFP level.…”

Section: Background and Descriptive Evidencementioning

confidence: 90%

“…As briefly explained in the introduction, we draw our data from two different sources. First, we rely on the longterm productivity database built by Bergeaud et al (2016) which provides comparable TFP estimates over a very long time dimension and for a large panel of countries. Second, we complete and backdate long-term real interest rate data provided by the OECD using the work of Jordà et al (2017).…”

Section: Background and Descriptive Evidencementioning

confidence: 99%

“…TFP growth trends: We distinguish two sub-periods: i) Up to the first oil shock at the beginning of the 1970s, TFP growth fluctuated around a stable rate of around 3%; ii) From the first oil shock onward, TFP growth declined by steps and its level at the end of the period varied between 0.5% and 1%. Bergeaud et al (2016Bergeaud et al ( , 2017 look more accurately at these data and highlight in fact three sub-periods:…”

Section: Background and Descriptive Evidencementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Economic growth in all advanced countries has slowed continuously since the 1970s and has fallen to a historical low since the Great Recession (at least compared to 20 th century standards, see Bergeaud et al, 2016Bergeaud et al, , 2017. This secular slowdown is mainly the result of weaker growth in total factor productivity whose widespread stagnation is difficult to interpret with a standard growth framework.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In order to test this mechanism, and in particular the existence of a circular relationship between real interest rates and TFP growth, we take a long run view. We first rely on the Long Term Productivity database built by Bergeaud et al (2016) which provides comparable cross-country TFP estimates from the end of the 19th century, and on the work of Jordà et al (2017) and in particular their Macrohistory database which provides yearly average values for long-term interest rates. We estimate this circular relationship by cross-country panel regressions using annual data on a sample of 17 advanced countries over the period 1950-2017.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Circular Relationship Between Productivity Growth and Real Interest Rates

2019

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In most advanced economies, both real interest rates and productivity growth have decreased since the early 1990s. In this paper, we explore the mechanism whereby a circular relationship links these two quantities. While productivity is a key driver of potential output which affects the level of interest rates, the level of interest rates is a determinant of the expected return from investment projects, and thus of the productivity level required for investment. In our model, absent of a technology shock, this specific relationship can only converge to an equilibrium where growth and interest rates are both low. We test this using macroeconomic data on 17 OECD countries and simulate the effect of a temporary productivity shock. RÉSUMÉDans la plupart des pays avancés, les taux d'intérêt réels et la croissance de la productivité ont décru depuis le début des années 1990. Dans ce papier, nous explorons le mécanisme par lequel une relation circulaire lie ces deux indicateurs. Alors que la productivité est un déterminant de la croissance potentielle et affecte donc le niveau des taux d'intérêt, le niveau des taux est un déterminant du rendement attendu des projets d'investissement et ainsi du niveau de productivité requis pour de tels investissements. Dans notre modèle, en l'absence de choc technologique, cette relation spécifique ne peut converger que vers un équilibre où taux d'intérêt et croissance sont bas. Nous testons cette relation en utilisant des données macroéconomiques sur 17 pays de l'OCDE et simulons l'effet d'un choc de productivité temporaire. Mots-clés : Productivité, Ralentissement, Stagnation Séculaire, Taux d'IntérêtLes Documents de travail reflètent les idées personnelles de leurs auteurs et n'expriment pas nécessairement la position de la Banque de France. Ils sont disponibles sur publications.banque-france.fr

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Section: Background and Descriptive Evidencementioning

confidence: 90%

Section: Background and Descriptive Evidencementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Background and Descriptive Evidencementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Circular Relationship Between Productivity Growth and Real Interest Rates

2019

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Convergence of GDP per capita in advanced countries over the twentieth century

2019

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This study compares GDP per capita levels and growth rates across 17 advanced economies over the period 1890-2013 using an accounting breakdown and runs Phillips and Sul (Econometrica 75(6):1771-1855, 2007) convergence tests. An overall convergence process has been at work among advanced economies, mainly after WWII, driven mostly by capital intensity and then TFP, while trends in hours worked and employment rates are disparate. However, this convergence process came to a halt during technology shocks, during the two world wars and since the 1990s, with the convergence of advanced economies stopping far from the level of US GDP per capita.

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Impact of technical change via intermediate consumption: exhaustive general equilibrium growth accounting and reassessment applied to USA 1954–1990

Daw

2022

Port Econ J

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The role of production factor quality and technology diffusion in twentieth-century productivity growth

Cited by 20 publications

References 76 publications

The Circular Relationship Between Productivity Growth and Real Interest Rates

The Circular Relationship Between Productivity Growth and Real Interest Rates

Convergence of GDP per capita in advanced countries over the twentieth century

Impact of technical change via intermediate consumption: exhaustive general equilibrium growth accounting and reassessment applied to USA 1954–1990

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