The role of perceived competence and risk perception in cycling near misses

Abstract

Cyclists' accidents account for a relatively large proportion of road fatalities and this proportion is increasing. Moreover, research suggests that crashes can be predicted by near misses, based on the assumption that they share common causes. Also in the cycling domain it has been suggested that near miss incidents may provide 'early warnings' of situations or behaviours that could lead to crashes. The aim of this study was to investigate the role played by perception of risk and control on the exposure to risky situations, such as the involvement in mixed traffic. We administered a questionnaire to 298 Italian cyclists measuring perceived competence (i.e. perceived control and overconfidence), risk perception of interactions with cars, bicycle use, avoidance of mixed traffic and recent experiences of near misses. Path analysis using Bayesian estimation showed that perceived control, mediated by overconfidence, had a positive indirect effect on bicycle use and a negative one on avoidance of mixed traffic, while it acted as a moderator in the relationship between risk perception of interaction with cars and avoidance of mixed traffic. Furthermore, the mediation paths revealed the indirect effects of perceived control on near misses through exposure. Results highlighted the importance of considering the role of individuals' perception of their ability to cycle with regard to near misses and provided new insight on how cyclists regulate their behaviour, as well as how such behaviour leads to different safety outcomes. Results have implications regarding theory, infrastructure and the application of new safety technologies.

Safety-oriented Practices of Adult Bicycle Ridersin Brooklyn, New York USA: An Interview Study

“…Twelve individuals favored using bike lanes when they are available, and seven individuals said that they tried to avoid streets with a lot of traffic. Similar bicyclist route preferences have been reported by other recent studies [29][30][31], and evidence suggests that crash risk may be reduced by using bike lanes [32] or avoiding challenging traffic situations [33][34][35].…”

Journey Attributes, E-Bike Use, and Perception of Driving Behavior of Motorists as Predictors of Bicycle Crash Involvement and Severity

“…We theorized that instrumental attributes might be associated with an increased risk of bicycle crash (Hypothesis 1) because cyclists endorsing instrumental attributes see traffic situations as more controllable and predictable. Previous research among cyclists revealed that overconfidence in cyclists' skills is associated with a higher risk of near misses (12) and with a relatively lower risk perception of dangerous traffic situations, such as committing a violation (13). In addition, overconfidence among cyclists may lead to not avoiding traffic situations (e.g., dangerous interactions with motorized vehicles) that, otherwise, would be considered hazardous (12).…”

“…Previous research among cyclists revealed that overconfidence in cyclists' skills is associated with a higher risk of near misses (12) and with a relatively lower risk perception of dangerous traffic situations, such as committing a violation (13). In addition, overconfidence among cyclists may lead to not avoiding traffic situations (e.g., dangerous interactions with motorized vehicles) that, otherwise, would be considered hazardous (12). Indeed, cyclists report experiences of abuse and harassment from motorists in mixed traffic conditions (14,15).…”

“…Chataway et al revealed that cyclists in an emerging cycling city are more likely to report higher levels of perceived risk in relation to the interaction with motorized vehicles than those in an established cycling city (16). Although previous research focused on perceived risk in relation to the interaction with motorized vehicles (12), to date, no studies have focused on the evaluation of motorist and van/lorry driver driving behavior among cyclists. There is evidence that avoidance of cycling in mixed traffic conditions, even if it means cycling on a longer route, is one coping strategy to reduce exposure to mixed traffic and minimize feeling unsafe (12,14,16).…”

“…Although previous research focused on perceived risk in relation to the interaction with motorized vehicles (12), to date, no studies have focused on the evaluation of motorist and van/lorry driver driving behavior among cyclists. There is evidence that avoidance of cycling in mixed traffic conditions, even if it means cycling on a longer route, is one coping strategy to reduce exposure to mixed traffic and minimize feeling unsafe (12,14,16). Since collisions between cyclists and motorized vehicles account for most reported bicyclists' fatalities and serious injuries (17)(18)(19)(20)(21), our hypothesis was that the poorer the cyclists' perception of the driving behavior of motorists and van/lorry drivers, the lower the likelihood of them suffering a severe injury (Hypothesis 3).…”