The role of movement restrictions and pre-emptive destruction in the emergency control strategy against CSF outbreaks in domestic pigs

Thulke, Hans‐Hermann; Eisinger, Dirk; Beer, Martin

doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2011.01.002

Cited by 25 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…The LSDMM is a spatially explicit, stochastic, state-transition model comparable to several similar models (Bates et al, 2003;Garner and Beckett, 2005;Thulke et al, 2011).…”

Section: Basic Principlesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling the spread of Swine Vesicular Disease Virus and Vesicular Stomatitis Virus in an area of livestock units without any control measures and measurement of consequential impact resulting from an assumed introduction into one livestock farm

Eisinger¹

2012

EFSA Supporting Publications

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“…The LSDMM is a spatially explicit, stochastic, state-transition model comparable to several similar models (Bates et al, 2003;Garner and Beckett, 2005;Thulke et al, 2011).…”

Section: Basic Principlesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling the spread of Swine Vesicular Disease Virus and Vesicular Stomatitis Virus in an area of livestock units without any control measures and measurement of consequential impact resulting from an assumed introduction into one livestock farm

Eisinger¹

2012

EFSA Supporting Publications

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“…Despite the potential adverse impact on pork production and animal welfare, movement restriction is considered an essential control strategy during a CSF outbreak (MartinezLopez et al, 2011;Thulke et al, 2011). However, potential animal welfare implications arising from movement restrictions must also be evaluated, and mitigation strategies must be planned.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling the time at which overcrowding and feed interruption emerge on the swine premises under movement restrictions during a classical swine fever outbreak

Weng

Yadav

Widmar

et al. 2017

Animal

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A stochastic risk model was developed to estimate the time elapsed before overcrowding (TOC) or feed interruption (TFI) emerged on the swine premises under movement restrictions during a classical swine fever (CSF) outbreak in Indiana, USA. Nursery (19 to 65 days of age) and grow-to-finish (40 to 165 days of age) pork production operations were modelled separately. Overcrowding was defined as the total weight of pigs on premises exceeding 100% to 115% of the maximum capacity of the premises, which was computed as the total weight of the pigs at harvest/transition age. Algorithms were developed to estimate age-specific weight of the pigs on premises and to compare the daily total weight of the pigs with the threshold weight defining overcrowding to flag the time when the total weight exceeded the threshold (i.e. when overcrowding occurred). To estimate TFI, an algorithm was constructed to model a swine producer's decision to discontinue feed supply by incorporating the assumptions that a longer estimated epidemic duration, a longer time interval between the age of pigs at the onset of the outbreak and the harvest/transition age, or a longer progression of an ongoing outbreak would increase the probability of a producer's decision to discontinue the feed supply. Adverse animal welfare conditions were modelled to emerge shortly after an interruption of feed supply. Simulations were run with 100 000 iterations each for a 365-day period. Overcrowding occurred in all simulated iterations, and feed interruption occurred in 30% of the iterations. The median (5th and 95th percentiles) TOC was 24 days (10, 43) in nursery operations and 78 days (26, 134) in grow-to-finish operations. Most feed interruptions, if they emerged, occurred within 15 days of an outbreak. The median (5th and 95th percentiles) time at which either overcrowding or feed interruption emerged was 19 days (4, 42) in nursery and 57 days (4, 130) in grow-to-finish operations. The study findings suggest that overcrowding and feed interruption could emerge early during a CSF outbreak among swine premises under movement restrictions. The outputs derived from the risk model could be used to estimate and evaluate associated mitigation strategies for alleviating adverse animal welfare conditions resulting from movement restrictions.

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“…Movement restriction is the most essential strategy for CSF outbreak control (6–8). In the United States, movement restrictions will be implemented and enforced on infected, suspected, and contact swine premises in the infected zone (a 3-km radius surrounding the infected premises) and on the uninfected swine premises in the movement restriction zone (7 km away from the perimeter of the infected zone; see Figure 1A) during a CSF outbreak (9).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A high level of compliance with movement restriction is essential for effective management of CSF outbreaks (6). However, several factors might contribute to the maintenance of a high compliance level with movement restrictions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Evaluation of Movement Restriction Zone Sizes in Controlling Classical Swine Fever Outbreaks

Yadav¹,

Widmar

Lay

et al. 2017

Front. Vet. Sci.

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The objective of this study was to compare the impacts of movement restriction zone sizes of 3, 5, 9, and 11 km with that of 7 km (the recommended zone size in the United States) in controlling a classical swine fever (CSF) outbreak. In addition to zone size, different compliance assumptions and outbreak types (single site and multiple site) were incorporated in the study. Three assumptions of compliance level were simulated: baseline, baseline ± 10%, and baseline ± 15%. The compliance level was held constant across all zone sizes in the baseline simulation. In the baseline ± 10% and baseline ± 15% simulations, the compliance level was increased for 3 and 5 km and decreased for 9 and 11 km from the baseline by the indicated percentages. The compliance level remained constant in all simulations for the 7-km zone size. Four single-site (i.e., with one index premises at the onset of outbreak) and four multiple-site (i.e., with more than one index premises at the onset of outbreak) CSF outbreak scenarios in Indiana were simulated incorporating various zone sizes and compliance assumptions using a stochastic between-premises disease spread model to estimate epidemic duration, percentage of infected, and preemptively culled swine premises. Furthermore, a risk assessment model that incorporated the results from the disease spread model was developed to estimate the number of swine premises under movement restrictions that would experience animal welfare outcomes of overcrowding or feed interruption during a CSF outbreak in Indiana. Compared with the 7-km zone size, the 3-km zone size resulted in a longer median epidemic duration, larger percentages of infected premises, and preemptively culled premises (P’s < 0.001) across all compliance assumptions and outbreak types. With the assumption of a higher compliance level, the 5-km zone size significantly (P < 0.001) reduced the epidemic duration and percentage of swine premises that would experience animal welfare outcomes in both outbreak types, whereas assumption of a lower compliance level for 9- and 11-km zone sizes significantly (P < 0.001) increased the epidemic duration and percentage of swine premises with animal welfare outcomes compared with the 7-km zone size. The magnitude of impact due to a zone size varied across the outbreak types (single site and multiple site). Overall, the 7-km zone size was found to be most effective in controlling CSF outbreaks, whereas the 5-km zone size was comparable to the 7-km zone size in some circumstances.

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The role of movement restrictions and pre-emptive destruction in the emergency control strategy against CSF outbreaks in domestic pigs

Cited by 25 publications

References 32 publications

Modelling the spread of Swine Vesicular Disease Virus and Vesicular Stomatitis Virus in an area of livestock units without any control measures and measurement of consequential impact resulting from an assumed introduction into one livestock farm

Modelling the spread of Swine Vesicular Disease Virus and Vesicular Stomatitis Virus in an area of livestock units without any control measures and measurement of consequential impact resulting from an assumed introduction into one livestock farm

Modelling the time at which overcrowding and feed interruption emerge on the swine premises under movement restrictions during a classical swine fever outbreak

Evaluation of Movement Restriction Zone Sizes in Controlling Classical Swine Fever Outbreaks

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