Increasing the number of students who study mathematics once it is no longer compulsory remains a priority for England. A longitudinal cohort from England (1085 students) was surveyed at Years 10 and 12. Students' self-beliefs of ability influenced their GCSE mathematics grades and their intended and actual mathematics subject-choices; the degree of under-confidence or over-confidence related to these self-beliefs was also influential. Additional factors that significantly influenced students' intentions at Year 10 to study mathematics in Year 12 were the advice or pressure to do so, the extrinsic motivation associated with mathematics, their gender and the emotional response associated with doing mathematics. These same factors were also significant influences on students' intentions at Year 12 to study mathematics at university, with the addition of their intrinsic motivation associated with mathematics. Although gender was not a significant influence on GCSE mathematics grades or whether students actually studied A-Level mathematics, boys were associated with higher intentions to study mathematics into Year 12, 13 and university. Additionally, girls were generally more under-confident than boys in their self-beliefs.
Introduction
Self-beliefs and subject-choicesIncreasing the numbers of mathematics students and graduates remains a priority for England; mathematics helps solve problems throughout the physical sciences, computer sciences, engineering, medicine and many other areas, and more students and graduates are hoped by policy-makers and stake-holders to ultimately benefit the wider economy (The Royal Society, 2011). Mathematics A-Level entries have only recently recovered following a decline owing to the introduction of Curriculum 2000 (Department for Education, 2011), and it remains important to explore why students decide to study A-Level mathematics or not, especially as fewer students in England study non-compulsory mathematics compared with many other countries (Hodgen et al., 2013).Students' attainment in GCSE mathematics has a major effect on whether they continue with the subject once it becomes non-compulsory. A continued onto A-Level mathematics, but only 15% of students with grade B and 1% with grade C did so (Department for Education, 2012). Other subjects such as the sciences, history and languages, are less critically dependent on GCSE grades for progression to A-Level. Additionally, students' self-beliefs of their own attainment, ability, or success, such as their academic subject-specific self-concept beliefs, are fundamental to both attainment (e.g. Huang, 2011) and subject-choices (e.g. Blenkinsop et al., 2006). A systematic literature review (Tripney et al., 2010) has highlighted that these self-beliefs, together with the perceived usefulness of subjects, enjoyment, and the complementary nature of some subjects, are commonly reported reasons for A-Level choices. Mathematics subject-choices in England have also been influenced by the perceived difficulty of A-Level study and (low) confi...