The Role of Migration in the Formation of Regional Labour Markets Amidst the Second Wave of Depopulation in Modern Russia

Abstract

The article reflects the results of a study of the impact of migration on regional labour markets amidst a decline in the working-age population in Russia. After substantiating the relevance of the issues under consideration, the authors propose a methodological analysis toolkit, the author’s own methodology for calculating the coefficients of permanent long-term external and internal labour migration in regional labour markets, and the coefficient of total migration burden. In addition, the authors provide an overview of the information and statistical base of the study. According to current migration records, data of Rosstat sample surveys on Russian labour migrants leaving for employment in other regions, regional labour resources balance sheets based on the calculated coefficients of labour market pressures, the authors analyzed the impact of migration on the Russian regional labour markets over the past decade. It revealed an increasing role of internal labour migration in many regions, primarily in the largest economic agglomerations and oil and gas territories. At the same time, the role of external labour migration remains stable and minimum indicators of the contribution of permanent migration to the formation of regional labour markets continue to decrease. It has been established that irrational counter flows of external and internal labour migration have developed, which indicates not only an imbalance in labour demand and supply but also a discrepancy between the qualitative composition of migrants and the needs of the economy. It is concluded that the state does not effectively regulate certain types of migration, considering its impact on the labour market. The authors justified the need for conducting regular household sample surveys according to specific programs to collect information about labour migrants and the conditions for using their labour. In addition to the current migration records, using interregional analysis, this information allows making more informed decisions at the federal and regional levels to correct the negative situation that has developed in the regional labour markets even before the coronavirus pandemic had struck.

Untitled

“…As a phenomenon that emerged in Russia at the turn of the century, depopulation persists despite the established trend of reducing the overall mortality rate. Rosstat predicts a further decline in the number of births until 2035, due to a decrease in the absolute number of women and men of working age, which poses a threat to national security [11][12][13][14]. The study of the life quality of the working-age population makes it possible to form a social portrait of this category of citizens to identify the main problems of medical care [15][16][17][18][19].…”