The Role of Initial Conditions in Post-Great Recession Recovery and Development: Single-County MSAs

Abstract

This article studies the impact of initial (circa 2009) socioeconomic conditions on post-Great Recession economic development/recovery. The units observed are 145 single-county metropolitan statistical areas in the lower 48 American states. Principal components analysis is used to construct a four-dimensional index representing economic development/recovery over 2009 to 2016. Variables in five categories—education/human capital, general socioeconomic/demographic conditions, industrial structure, public policy, and regional variables—are used to explain variation in the economic development index. The estimates indicated that approximately two thirds of the variation in post-recession economic development can be explained using only initial conditions.

Impacts of political fragmentation on inclusive economic resilience: Examining American metropolitan areas after the Great Recession

“…Researchers suggest several initial regional characteristics as determinants of economic resilience. One of the major determinants in the economic geography literature includes the level of industry diversity (Adkisson et al, 2020; Conroy, 1974; Di Caro and Ugo, 2018). Regional innovation capacity has received significant attention in the economic resilience literature (Bristow and Healy, 2018; Chapple and Lester, 2010; Clark et al, 2010; Duvivier et al, 2018; Østbye et al, 2018).…”