The Role of Individual Differences in the Accuracy of Confidence Judgments

Abstract

Generally, self-assessment of accuracy in the cognitive domain produces overconfidence, whereas self-assessment of visual perceptual judgments results in underconfidence. Despite contrary empirical evidence, in models attempting to explain those phenomena, individual differences have often been disregarded. The authors report on 2 studies in which that shortcoming was addressed. In Experiment 1, participants (N= 520) completed a large number of cognitive-ability tests. Results indicated that individual differences provide a meaningful source of overconfidence and that a metacognitive trait might mediate that effect. In further analysis, there was only a relatively small correlation between test accuracy and confidence bias. In Experiment 2 (N = 107 participants), both perceptual and cognitive ability tests were included, along with measures of personality. Results again indicated the presence of a confidence factor that transcended the nature of the testing vehicle. Furthermore, a small relationship was found between that factor and some self-reported personality measures. Thus, personality traits and cognitive ability appeared to play only a small role in determining the accuracy of self-assessment. Collectively, the present results suggest that there are multiple causes of miscalibration, which current models of over- and underconfidence fail to encompass.

Overconfidence and trading volume

“…Although knowledge questions and stock market prediction questions are completely different tasks, we find stable individual differences in the degree of miscalibration. This finding is in line with several psychological studies (see, for example, Alba and Hutchinson [2000], Klayman et al [1999], Pallier et al [2002], Soll [1996], Soll and Klayman [2004], and Stanovich and West [1998]). Usually, individual differences are especially strong when subjects are asked to state subjective confidence intervals (see, for example, Klayman et al [1999, p. 240]).…”

Separating the Biased Perceptions from Lack of Knowledge on Entrepreneurship Through a Diagnostic Instrument: LEDI

“…Confidence in one's own skills appears to be stronger among individuals in early stages of the entrepreneurial process, when the outcome of the business is still based on expectations.' Such result is corroborated by Pallier et al (2002) who reveal that self-assessment in the cognitive domain produce overconfidence. Another surprising result is the mean of lack of knowledge percentage (12 %).…”

Confidence versus Performance as an Indicator of the Presence of Alternative Conceptions and Inadequate Problem‐Solving Skills in Mechanics

“…In psychology literature, the relationship between confidence and performance has been studied extensively, primarily with the view to explore the dynamics of confidence bias, which is the systematic error made by individuals in assessing the correctness of their responses relating to intellectual or perceptual problems (e.g., Pallier, et al, 2002). The use of confidence levels in mathematics or science education research is limited, but has been applied in chemistry (Potgieter, Rogan & Howie, 2005), mathematics (Yazdani, 2006), biology (Bowen & Roth, 1999) and mechanics (Oliva, 1999;Reif & Allen, 1992).…”

“…Heller and Finley (1992) refer to these as intuitive conceptions, but Dykstra, Boyle and Monarch (1992) prefer the expression alternative conceptions because it implies that they are 'rationally based on the students' experiences with the world and prove adequate for … most everyday tasks …' (p. 621). We have used the general term alternative conceptions to include all of these perspectives.In psychology literature, the relationship between confidence and performance has been studied extensively, primarily with the view to explore the dynamics of confidence bias, which is the systematic error made by individuals in assessing the correctness of their responses relating to intellectual or perceptual problems (e.g., Pallier, et al, 2002). The use of confidence levels in mathematics or science education research is limited, but has been applied in chemistry (Potgieter, Rogan & Howie, 2005), mathematics (Yazdani, 2006), biology (Bowen & Roth, 1999) and mechanics (Oliva, 1999;Reif & Allen, 1992).…”