The role of ideology in terrorists’ target selection

Drake, C. J. M.

doi:10.1080/09546559808427457

Cited by 150 publications

(61 citation statements)

References 18 publications

(11 reference statements)

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“…This contrasts with existing theories that remain deeply skeptical of ideological arguments (on this skepticism, see Drake, 1998;Gutiérrez-Sanin & Wood, 2014). Many core works sideline ideology (including Leites & Wolf, 1970;Kalyvas, 2006Kalyvas, , 2012Christia, 2012;Staniland, 2014) or only invoke it to explain residual variation (Weinstein, 2007;Mampilly, 2011: 77-78).…”

Section: Ideology and Violence In Civil War Settingscontrasting

confidence: 39%

Can Civilian Attitudes Predict Civil War Violence?

2014

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Are civilian attitudes a useful predictor of patterns of violence in civil wars? A prominent debate has emerged among scholars and practitioners about the importance of winning civilian 'hearts and minds' for influencing their wartime behavior. We argue that such efforts may have a dark side: insurgents can use pro-counterinsurgent attitudes as cues to select their targets and tactics. We conduct an original survey experiment in 204 Afghan villages and establish a positive association between pro-International Security Assistance Force attitudes and future Taliban attacks. We extend our analysis to 14,606 non-surveyed villages and demonstrate that our measure of civilian attitudes improves out-of-sample predictive performance by 20-30% over a standard forecasting model. The results are especially strong for Taliban attacks with improvised explosive devices. These improvements in predictive power remain even after adjusting for possible confounders, including past violence, military bases, and development aid.

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Section: Ideology and Violence In Civil War Settingscontrasting

confidence: 39%

Can Civilian Attitudes Predict Civil War Violence?

2014

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“…Moghadam (2008;see also Piazza, 2009) finds that insurgent groups espousing radical Islamist ideologies, particularly those affiliated with Al-Qaeda, are most likely to engage in suicide attacks. Other scholars have also found that ideology impacts the governance structures rebel groups create (Suykens, 2015), shapes rebel recruitment and support strategies (Goswami, 2015;Gutiérrez Sanín & Wood, 2014), influences patterns of rebel-civilian interactions (Gutiérrez Sanín & Wood, 2014), and may influence the severity and targets of rebel violence (Drake, 1998;Piazza, 2009;Thaler, 2012).…”

Section: Political Ideology and Rebel Strategymentioning

confidence: 99%

Women on the frontline

Wood

Thomas

2017

Journal of Peace Research

118

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Despite the frequent participation of women in armed groups, few studies have sought to explain the variation in their roles across different rebellions. Herein, we investigate this variation. We argue that the political ideology a group adopts plays a central role in determining the extent of women's participation, particularly their deployment in combat roles. Specifically, we link variations in women's roles in armed groups to differences in beliefs about gender hierarchies and gender-based divisions of labor inherent in the specific ideologies the groups adopt. We evaluate hypotheses drawn from these arguments using a novel cross-sectional dataset on female combatants in a global sample of rebel organizations active between 1979 and 2009. We find that the presence of a Marxist-oriented 'leftist' ideology increases the prevalence of female fighters while Islamist ideologies exert the opposite effect. However, we find little evidence that nationalism exerts an independent influence on women's combat roles. We also note a general inverse relationship between group religiosity and the prevalence of female fighters. Our analysis demonstrates that political ideology plays a central role in determining whether and to what extent resistance movements incorporate female fighters into their armed wings.

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“…Looking across a variety of different groups, the effect of ideology is clear, for example, in how groups select targets for attack and which of many possible targets are considered most advantageous (Calle and Sánchez-Cuenca, 2007;della Porta, 1995;Drake, 1993Drake, , 1998 and what other activities are consistent with the group's approach to operations. A similar calculus applies to whether a particular action is consistent with advancing a group's other goals or interests (Drake, 1998).…”

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confidence: 99%

Putting the Pieces Together

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The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.R ® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2009 RAND CorporationPermission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/publications/permissions.html). The research described in this report was prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD). The research was conducted in the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the OSD, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community under Contract W74V8H-06-C-0002.iii PrefaceThis monograph surveys social-science literature relating to counterterrorism. It also takes first steps toward integrating the knowledge reflected in that literature and suggesting theories and methods to inform analysis and modeling.

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The role of ideology in terrorists’ target selection

Cited by 150 publications

References 18 publications

Can Civilian Attitudes Predict Civil War Violence?

Can Civilian Attitudes Predict Civil War Violence?

Women on the frontline

Putting the Pieces Together

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