The Role of Highly-Resolved Gust Speed in Simulations of Storm Damage in Forests at the Landscape Scale: A Case Study from Southwest Germany

Jung, Christopher; Schindler, Dirk; Albrecht, Axel; Buchholz, Alexander

doi:10.3390/atmos7010007

Cited by 23 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…Wind gusts are typically used as the main weather parameter in the assessment of wind‐induced damage (e.g. Pasztor et al , 2015; Jung et al , 2016). Therefore, accurate wind‐gust forecasts will enhance preparedness planning, with, for example, rescue services and power companies able to allocate resources when strong, damaging gusts are expected.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Methodology for obtaining wind gusts using Doppler lidar

Suomi

Gryning

O’Connor

et al. 2017

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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A new methodology is proposed for scaling Doppler lidar observations of wind gusts to make them comparable with those observed at a meteorological mast. Doppler lidars can then be used to measure wind gusts in regions and heights where traditional meteorological mast measurements are not available. This novel method also provides estimates for wind gusts at arbitrary gust durations, including those shorter than the temporal resolution of the Doppler lidar measurements. The input parameters for the scaling method are the measured wind‐gust speed as well as the mean and standard deviation of the horizontal wind speed. The method was tested using WindCube V2 Doppler lidar measurements taken next to a 100 m high meteorological mast. It is shown that the method can provide realistic Doppler lidar estimates of the gust factor, i.e. the ratio of the wind‐gust speed to the mean wind speed. The method reduced the bias in the Doppler lidar gust factors from 0.07 to 0.03 and can be improved further to reduce the bias by using a realistic estimate of turbulence. Wind gust measurements are often prone to outliers in the time series, because they represent the maximum of a (moving‐averaged) horizontal wind speed. To assure the data quality in this study, we applied a filtering technique based on spike detection to remove possible outliers in the Doppler lidar data. We found that the spike detection‐removal method clearly improved the wind‐gust measurements, both with and without the scaling method. Spike detection also outperformed the traditional Doppler lidar quality assurance method based on carrier‐to‐noise ratio, by removing additional unrealistic outliers present in the time series.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Methodology for obtaining wind gusts using Doppler lidar

Suomi

Gryning

O’Connor

et al. 2017

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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show abstract

“…The predictor variable selection process comprised several steps. First, the most appropriate length of outer-circle radii for τ and z0,eff were determined by the correlation coefficient (r) between τ respectively z0,eff and Y. Secondly, the importance of the remaining predictor variables was evaluated by predictor importance (PI) which quantifies the relative contribution of individual predictor variables to the model output [21]. The PI-values were determined by summing up changes in MSE due to splits on every predictor and dividing the sum by the number of branch nodes.…”

Section: Annual Wind Energy Yield Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

High Spatial Resolution Simulation of Annual Wind Energy Yield Using Near-Surface Wind Speed Time Series

Jung

2016

Energies

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Abstract:In this paper a methodology is presented that can be used to model the annual wind energy yield (AEY mod ) on a high spatial resolution (50 mˆ50 m) grid based on long-term (1979-2010) near-surface wind speed (U S ) time series measured at 58 stations of the German Weather Service (DWD). The study area for which AEY mod is quantified is the German federal state of Baden-Wuerttemberg. Comparability of the wind speed time series was ensured by gap filling, homogenization and detrending. The U S values were extrapolated to the height 100 m (U 100m,emp ) above ground level (AGL) by the Hellman power law. All U 100m,emp time series were then converted to empirical cumulative distribution functions (CDF emp ). 67 theoretical cumulative distribution functions (CDF) were fitted to all CDF emp and their goodness of fit (GoF) was evaluated. It turned out that the five-parameter Wakeby distribution (WK5) is universally applicable in the study area. Prior to the least squares boosting (LSBoost)-based modeling of WK5 parameters, 92 predictor variables were obtained from: (i) a digital terrain model (DTM), (ii) the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts re-analysis (ERA)-Interim reanalysis wind speed data available at the 850 hPa pressure level (U 850hPa ), and (iii) the Coordination of Information on the Environment (CORINE) Land Cover (CLC) data. On the basis of predictor importance (PI) and the evaluation of model accuracy, the combination of predictor variables that provides the best discrimination between U 100m,emp and the modeled wind speed at 100 m AGL (U 100m,mod ), was identified. Results from relative PI-evaluation demonstrate that the most important predictor variables are relative elevation (Φ) and topographic exposure (τ) in the main wind direction. Since all WK5 parameters are available, any manufacturer power curve can easily be applied to quantify AEY mod .

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“…Pasztor et al, 2015;Jung et al, 2016). Therefore, accurate wind-gust forecasts will enhance preparedness planning, with, for example, rescue services and power companies able to allocate resources when strong, damaging gusts are expected.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Untitled

2017

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A new methodology is proposed for scaling Doppler lidar observations of wind gusts to make them comparable with those observed at a meteorological mast. Doppler lidars can then be used to measure wind gusts in regions and heights where traditional meteorological mast measurements are not available. This novel method also provides estimates for wind gusts at arbitrary gust durations, including those shorter than the temporal resolution of the Doppler lidar measurements. The input parameters for the scaling method are the measured wind-gust speed as well as the mean and standard deviation of the horizontal wind speed. The method was tested using WindCube V2 Doppler lidar measurements taken next to a 100 m high meteorological mast. It is shown that the method can provide realistic Doppler lidar estimates of the gust factor, i.e. the ratio of the wind-gust speed to the mean wind speed. The method reduced the bias in the Doppler lidar gust factors from 0.07 to 0.03 and can be improved further to reduce the bias by using a realistic estimate of turbulence. Wind gust measurements are often prone to outliers in the time series, because they represent the maximum of a (moving-averaged) horizontal wind speed. To assure the data quality in this study, we applied a filtering technique based on spike detection to remove possible outliers in the Doppler lidar data. We found that the spike detection-removal method clearly improved the wind-gust measurements, both with and without the scaling method. Spike detection also outperformed the traditional Doppler lidar quality assurance method based on carrier-to-noise ratio, by removing additional unrealistic outliers present in the time series.

show abstract

The Role of Highly-Resolved Gust Speed in Simulations of Storm Damage in Forests at the Landscape Scale: A Case Study from Southwest Germany

Cited by 23 publications

References 53 publications

Methodology for obtaining wind gusts using Doppler lidar

Methodology for obtaining wind gusts using Doppler lidar

High Spatial Resolution Simulation of Annual Wind Energy Yield Using Near-Surface Wind Speed Time Series

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