The role of East Coast Lows on rainfall patterns and inter‐annual variability across the East Coast of Australia

Pepler, Acacia; Coutts-Smith, Aaron; Timbal, Bertrand

doi:10.1002/joc.3741

Cited by 59 publications

(84 citation statements)

References 27 publications

(57 reference statements)

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“…The importance of ECLs and other low pressure systems to heavy rainfall over the eastern seaboard of Australia has been noted previously (e.g. Hopkins and Holland 1997;Pepler and Rakich 2010;Pepler et al 2013).…”

Section: Low-to-mid-level Wind Structure Associated With Extreme Rainsupporting

confidence: 55%

A vertical wind structure that leads to extreme rainfall and major flooding in southeast Australia

Callaghan¹,

Power²

2017

JSHESS

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Here we examine winds associated with extreme rainfall and major flooding in coastal catchments and more broadly over southeastern Australia. Both radiosonde and re-analysis data are examined. In every case (i) atmospheric moisture content is high and (ii) the low-level winds are onshore, and in almost every case (iii) the wind-direction turns anti-cyclonically with increasing height up to 500 hPa. Data from Brisbane extending back more than 50 years is consistent with this behavior: winds turn anti-cyclonically with increasing height on days with heavy rainfall, whereas winds turn cyclonically with increasing height on days with light or no rainfall. In the coastal zone, extreme rainfall rarely occurs without (i), (ii) and (iii). In eastern Australia beyond the coastal zone, conditions (i) and (iii) are also associated with extreme rainfall. We found very few cases where such conditions were not associated with extreme rainfall in this broader region. This study extends previous work by showing that the link between turning winds and rainfall exists in both the tropics and subtropics, and the link applies in cases of extreme rainfall and associated major flooding.

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Section: Low-to-mid-level Wind Structure Associated With Extreme Rainsupporting

confidence: 55%

A vertical wind structure that leads to extreme rainfall and major flooding in southeast Australia

Callaghan¹,

Power²

2017

JSHESS

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“…This is deliberate, and necessary, as part of the reason why so much uncertainty and so many knowledge gaps remain around ECLs and their impacts is because of the multiple ECL definitions and datasets that exist (there is inconsistency and contradiction in the published literature on ECLs and their impacts and this is at least partially related to the fact that it is rare to find two studies that use the same ECL definitions or dataset; e.g. Speer et al 2009, Pepler and Rakich 2010, Browning and Goodwin 2013, Callaghan and Power 2014, Pepler et al 2014a, 2014b, Black and Lane 2015. One of the first priorities of ESCCI-ECL was to agree on an ECL definition and dataset that all ESCCI-ECL projects should use and it was determined that the Browning and Goodwin (2013) was the most appropriate.…”

Section: Defining and Categorising Eclsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…have been suggested and this is the topic of recent and ongoing research (e.g. Gallant et al 2012, Pepler et al 2014a, 2014b, Twomey and Kiem 2015, 2016a, Power and Callaghan 2016, Tozer et al 2016). …”

Section: Figurementioning

confidence: 99%

“…frequency, timing) is related to large-scale processes known to be associated with interannual to multidecadal hydroclimatic variability in Australia (e.g. Gallant et al 2012, Pepler et al 2014a, 2014b, Twomey and Kiem 2015, 2016a, Power and Callaghan 2016, Tozer et al 2016. Figure 5 shows the spatial variation in the location of ECLs, categorised by ECL sub-type as per Section 2.1, that have occurred from 1979-2011 during four different phases of the ECL event.…”

Section: Figurementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Pepler and Rakich 2010, VerdonKidd et al 2010, Kiem and Twomey 2014, Pepler et al 2014a, 2014b, Black and Lane 2015. Each year there are about between ten and thirty significant maritime lows and generally (i.e.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Links between East Coast Lows and the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall along the eastern seaboard of Australia

Kiem¹,

Twomey²,

Lockart³

et al. 2016

JSHESS

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East Coast Lows (ECLs) are intense low-pressure systems which occur over the subtropical east coasts of southern and northern hemisphere continents. ECLs are typically associated with gale force winds, large seas, storm surges, heavy rainfall and flooding. While ECL impacts are typically seen as negative the rainfall associated with ECLs is also very important for urban water security within the heavily populated eastern seaboard of Australia (ESA). This study investigates historical ECLs to gain insights into the timing, frequency, intensity and location of ECL occurrence as well as the magnitude and spatial extent of ECL impacts on rainfall. The different characteristics and impacts associated with different ECL sub-types are highlighted and it is proposed that this spatial and temporal variability in ECL behaviour at least partially explains why the ESA is hydroclimatically different to the rest of Australia and why different locations within the ESA have such different rainfall patterns-and therefore different levels of flood and drought risk. These insights are critical to the objectives of the New South Wales government funded Eastern Seaboard Climate Change Initiative (ESCCI), in particular Project 5 which focuses on the water security impacts of ECLs. The results of this work will be used to produce climate-informed stochastic daily rainfall simulations that are more realistic than existing stochastic rainfall simulation methods at preserving the statistics important for catchment-scale hydrology (e.g. clustering of extreme events, long-term persistence, frequency/duration/magnitude of wet and dry spells). These simulated rainfall sequences, that incorporate the spatial and temporal hydroclimatic variability caused by ECLs and other climate phenomena, are important inputs into the hydrological models used to determine current and future urban water security within the ESA.

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The influence of local sea surface temperatures on Australian east coast cyclones

et al. 2016

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Cyclones are a major cause of rainfall and extreme weather in the midlatitudes and have a preference for genesis and explosive development in areas where a warm western boundary current borders a continental landmass. While there is a growing body of work on how extratropical cyclones are influenced by the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio Current in the Northern Hemisphere, there is little understanding of similar regions in the Southern Hemisphere including the Australian east coast, where cyclones that develop close to the coast are the main cause of severe weather and coastal flooding. This paper quantifies the impact of east Australian sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on local cyclone activity and behavior, using three different sets of sea surface temperature boundary conditions during the period 2007–2008 in an ensemble of Weather Research and Forecasting Model physics parameterizations. Coastal sea surface temperatures are demonstrated to have a significant impact on the overall frequency of cyclones in this region, with warmer SSTs acting as a trigger for the intensification of weak or moderate cyclones, particularly those of a subtropical nature. However, sea surface temperatures play only a minor role in the most intense cyclones, which are dominated by atmospheric conditions.

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The role of East Coast Lows on rainfall patterns and inter‐annual variability across the East Coast of Australia

Cited by 59 publications

References 27 publications

A vertical wind structure that leads to extreme rainfall and major flooding in southeast Australia

A vertical wind structure that leads to extreme rainfall and major flooding in southeast Australia

Links between East Coast Lows and the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall along the eastern seaboard of Australia

The influence of local sea surface temperatures on Australian east coast cyclones

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