The role of cohorts in the understanding of the changes in fertility in Czechia since 1990

Abstract

This article presents a detailed analysis of the fertility changes in Czechia since 1990 using the cohort approach and contributes to the overall understanding of the fertility postponement process. Because the timing of childbearing since 1990 has changed significantly, particular attention is devoted to the differences in the timing of fertility between cohorts. Data from the Human Fertility Database was analyzed via both standard (based on age-specific fertility rates) and advanced methods (postponement and recuperation indicators, parity progression ratio). Four groups of cohorts with specific fertility patterns were identified: 1965–1970, 1971–1976, 1977–1982, and 1983–1990. These groups were impacted by the political, economic and social transformation of the 1990s, the financial crisis of 2008–2012 and other socio-economic changes during the study period in different ways. While the 1965–1970 cohort was associated with the rapid occurrence of postponement, it still reflected the early fertility pattern. The 1971–1976 cohort was associated with the most intensive degree of postponement, the 1977–1982 cohort can be linked to the onset of the deceleration of the postponement process, and the 1983–1990 cohort appears to be the first to stabilize their fertility at later ages.

The fertility timing gap: the intended and real timing of childbirth

“…The fertility timing gap is measured as the difference between the median age at the birth of the first child and the median age at which the birth of the first child was planned. Across several generations of Czech women, the oldest cohort (1966)(1967)(1968)(1969)(1970), which still largely followed the early fertility pattern (Kocourková et al, 2022), was found to have a fertility timing gap of minus one, i.e. the planned age at the birth of the first child was higher than that observed (planned age = 23 years; actual age at first childbirth = 22 years).…”

“…This paper studies the fertility timing gap based on data on Czech women born between 1966 and 1990, a period characterised by significant changes in fertility timing (Kocourková et al, 2022) due to both value changes (Polesná and Kocourková, 2016) and changes in the availability of contraception (Kocourková and Fait, 2011). According to the Human Fertility Database, by age 40 the mean age at first childbirth was 22.5 years for the generation of women born in 1966 and 27.9 years for women born in 1981.…”

“…For analytical reasons, the data were split into four cohort groups with differing fertility patterns. The groups were identified by applying the cohort approach (Sobotka et al, 2011;Kocourková et al, 2022), and the following cohort categorisation is based on a detailed study of the women's reproductive behaviour based on vital statistics (Kocourková et al, 2022). The first group comprised women born between 1966 and 1970 who witnessed the rapid development of fertility postponement; however, their reproductive behaviour still reflected the early fertility pattern.…”

“…The studied cohort groups differed in terms of the timing of reproduction (Kocourková et al, 2022). A 5-year shift in the median age at completion of education was evident across these cohorts, from 19 years for the 1966-1970 and 1971-1976 cohorts to 24 years for the [1983][1984][1985][1986][1987][1988][1989][1990] cohort (Table 1).…”

The influence of the increasing use of assisted reproduction technologies on the recent growth in fertility in Czechia

“…Czechia has had low fertility rates (TFR of below or around 1.5 children per woman) since the 1990s [ 1 ] . In recent years, however, fertility has been increasing and the TFR reached 1.71 children per woman in 2020.…”