The role of climate variability and global warming in the dieback of Northern Hardwoods

Auclair, Allan N. D.; Lill, John T.; Revenga, Carmen

doi:10.1007/bf00666255

Cited by 64 publications

(52 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…The decline of the red spruce is likely related to increased winter injury from acidic deposition, which is more severe at higher elevations (33,34). Paper birch may also be adversely affected by increasing frequency of freeze-thaw events associated with climate change (35). The differential mortality responses of the boreal , yellow birch (E), and paper birch (F).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A rapid upward shift of a forest ecotone during 40 years of warming in the Green Mountains of Vermont

Beckage

Osborne

Gavin

et al. 2008

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

395

321

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Detecting latitudinal range shifts of forest trees in response to recent climate change is difficult because of slow demographic rates and limited dispersal but may be facilitated by spatially compressed climatic zones along elevation gradients in montane environments. We resurveyed forest plots established in 1964 along elevation transects in the Green Mountains (Vermont) to examine whether a shift had occurred in the location of the northern hardwood-boreal forest ecotone (NBE) from 1964 to 2004. We found a 19% increase in dominance of northern hardwoods from 70% in 1964 to 89% in 2004 in the lower half of the NBE. This shift was driven by a decrease (up to 76%) in boreal and increase (up to 16%) in northern hardwood basal area within the lower portions of the ecotone. We used aerial photographs and satellite imagery to estimate a 91-to 119-m upslope shift in the upper limits of the NBE from 1962 to 2005. The upward shift is consistent with regional climatic change during the same period; interpolating climate data to the NBE showed a 1.1°C increase in annual temperature, which would predict a 208-m upslope movement of the ecotone, along with a 34% increase in precipitation. The rapid upward movement of the NBE indicates little inertia to climatically induced range shifts in montane forests; the upslope shift may have been accelerated by high turnover in canopy trees that provided opportunities for ingrowth of lower elevation species. Our results indicate that high-elevation forests may be jeopardized by climate change sooner than anticipated.climate change ͉ range shift G lobal climate is currently warming at an unprecedented rate with potentially profound and widespread effects on the distributions of ecological communities. Mean global temperature rose by 0.6°C over the past century, the rate of warming since 1976 has been greater than any other period during the last 1,000 years, and the decade 1990-1999 was the hottest in recorded history (1, 2). Recent climate change has been driven primarily by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), and warming is likely to continue at the same or an accelerated rate for the foreseeable future (3-6): global temperatures are predicted to rise by another 1.4-5.8°C by the year 2100 (7). Climate is an important determinant of species' ranges, and rising temperatures associated with GHG emissions are predicted to lead to species' migrations poleward or upward in elevation (8-10). Climate-linked range shifts have already been observed in some taxa (11,12). Although forest composition and geographic distributions of canopy trees are expected to shift with global warming, it is not clear what level of inertia, or time lag, forests will display to climatic forcing nor how strong the relationship will be between warming and tree line rise (13-15). Historical reconstructions and models of forest response to climate change suggest that the natural pace of tree recruitment and canopy turnover result in century-scale responses of ecotones to climate change, which could ma...

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A rapid upward shift of a forest ecotone during 40 years of warming in the Green Mountains of Vermont

Beckage

Osborne

Gavin

et al. 2008

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

395

321

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“…Climate change also poses a risk of increasing impairment of forest productivity from outbreaks of insects and diseases Fleming 2000, Volney and, including both native and exotic species (Krcmar-Nozic et al 2000). Northern forests are also subject to damage by a wide variety of extreme climate events, notably wind (Peterson 2000), hail and ice storms (Hopkin et al 2003), and thaw-freeze events during winter and spring (Auclair et al 1996). Such extreme events are rarely included in forest productivity models, yet their combined impacts are expected to increase in the future under climate change (McCarthy et al 2001).…”

Section: Forests and Climate Change: The Major Science Issuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts on drought-prone forests in western Canada

Hogg¹,

Bernier²

2005

The Forestry Chronicle

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From a climate change perspective, much of the recent international focus on forests has been on their role in taking up carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from the atmosphere. The question of climate change impacts on forest productivity is also emerging as a critical issue, especially in drought-prone regions such as the western Canadian interior. Because of the complexity of interacting factors, there is uncertainty even in predicting the direction of change in the productivity of Canada's forests as a whole over the next century. In the most climatically vulnerable regions, however, successful adaptation may require more innovative approaches to forest management, coupled with an enhanced capacity for early detection of large-scale changes in forest productivity, dieback and regeneration.Key words: climate change, boreal forest, productivity, drought, impacts, adaptation RÉSUMÉ Dans le cadre des changements climatiques, la majeure partie de l'attention internationale récente sur les forêts a porté sur leurs rôles d'emmagasiner le dioxyde de carbone (CO 2 ) en provenance de l'atmosphère. La question des effets des changements climatiques sur la productivité forestière constitue également un enjeu majeur, surtout dans les régions sujettes à la sécheresse comme la partie intérieure de l'Ouest canadien. À cause de la complexité des facteurs en interaction, il existe une incertitude même dans la prédiction de la direction des changements dans la productivité des forêts canadiennes dans son ensemble au cours du prochain siècle. Dans le cas des régions les plus susceptibles en terme climatique, une adaptation réussie pourrait nécessiter des approches plus innovatrices en matière d'aménagement forestier, associées à une capacité accrue de détection hâtive des changements à grandes échelles dans la productivité forestières, le dépérissement et la régénération.

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“…By allowing variation in irregular mortality and keeping regular mortality rate constant and low, we assumed that irregular mortality dominated over regular (age-related) mortality. We based this assumption on studies suggesting that (1) low "background" mortality (regular mortality in our study) is accompanied by episodes of high mortality (irregular mortality), and that (2) impact of irregular mortality tend to be larger than the impact of the regular mortality (Auclair et al, 1996;Osipov and Selochnik, 1989;Wolf et al, 2004).…”

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confidence: 99%

Durée de vie et mortalité des vieux chênes: une approche empirique combinée à une modélisation pour un appui à leur gestion dans le sud de la Suède

Drobyshev¹,

Niklasson²,

Linderson

et al. 2008

Ann. For. Sci.

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To cite this version:Igor Drobyshev, Mats Niklasson, Hans Linderson, Kerstin Sonesson, Matts Karlsson, et al.. Lifespan and mortality of old oaks -combining empirical and modelling approaches to support their management in Southern Sweden. Annals of Forest Science, Springer Verlag/EDP Sciences, 2008, 65 (4), pp.1. Ann. For. Sci. 65 (2008) Abstract -• Old oaks (Quercus robur L.) play an important role in the southern Scandinavian landscape by providing habitat for a wide range of species, a large proportion of them being currently on the National Redlists.• To provide support for the management of these trees, we review data on oak mortality and formulate a mortality-driven stochastic model analysing interactions between mortality rate, oak recruitment rate into 100-150 age class, and amount of oaks older than 200 years.• Empirical annual mortality rates varied between 0 and 13% with average 1.68%. Trees older 200 years had an average mortality rate of 1.1%. Oaks in the high density forests showed higher mortality (3.2%) as compared to the trees growing in the low density forests (1.2%). A 400-year long modelling exercises indicated that under current mortality rates (regular mortality being centred around 1% annually; and irregular mortality 7% with average return time of 13 years) the long-term maintenance of 20 trees older than 200 years per ha would require an input rate of 1 to 5 trees × year −1 × ha −1 into the 100-150 years old class.• The modelling highlighted the importance of initial oak abundance affecting amount of old trees at the end of shorter (100 years) simulation period.European hardwoods / conservation / dendrochronology / population dynamics / disturbance Résumé -Durée de vie et mortalité des vieux chênes : une approche empirique combinée à une modélisation pour un appui à leur gestion dans le sud de la Suède.• Les vieux chênes (Quercus robur L.) jouent un rôle important dans le paysage du sud de la Suède en procurant un habitat pour un large éventail d'espèces, une grande proportion d'entre elles étant actuellement dans les Listes rouges nationales.• Pour appuyer la gestion de ces arbres, nous avons examiné les données relatives à la mortalité des chênes et formulons un modèle stochastique de mortalité analysant les interactions entre taux de mortalité, taux de recrutement des chênes dans les classes 100-150 ans et total des chênes plus vieux que 200 ans.• Les taux empiriques de mortalité ont varié entre 0 et 13 % avec une moyenne de 1,68 %. Les arbres de plus de 200 ans présentaient un taux de mortalité de 1,1 %. Dans les plus fortes densités forestières les chênes montraient une mortalité plus élevée (3,2 %) comparativement aux arbres poussant dans des forêts de densité plus faible (1,2 %). Des exercices de modélisation sur 400 ans ont indiqué qu'en dessous d'un taux courant de mortalité (mortalité courante annelle centrée autour de 1 % et mortalité irrégulière de 7 % avec un temps de retour de 13 ans) la maintenance à long terme de 20 vieux arbres par hectare demanderait u...

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The role of climate variability and global warming in the dieback of Northern Hardwoods

Cited by 64 publications

References 22 publications

A rapid upward shift of a forest ecotone during 40 years of warming in the Green Mountains of Vermont

A rapid upward shift of a forest ecotone during 40 years of warming in the Green Mountains of Vermont

Climate change impacts on drought-prone forests in western Canada

Durée de vie et mortalité des vieux chênes: une approche empirique combinée à une modélisation pour un appui à leur gestion dans le sud de la Suède

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