The role of biomaterials for the energy transition from the lens of a national integrated assessment model

Abstract

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) indicate biomass as an essential energy carrier to reduce GHG emissions in the global energy system. However, few IAMs represent the possibility of co-producing final energy carriers and feedstock. This study fills this gap by developing an integrated analysis of energy, land, and materials. This allows us to evaluate if the production of biofuels in a climate-constrained scenario can co-output biomaterials, being also driven by hydrocarbons/carbohydrates liquid streams made available from the transition to electromobility. The analysis was implemented through the incorporation of a materials module in the Brazilian Land Use and Energy System model. The findings show that bio-based petrochemicals account for 33% of the total petrochemical production in a stringent carbon dioxide mitigation scenario, in 2050. Most of this comes as co-products from facilities that produce advanced fuels as the main product. Moreover, from 2040 mobility electrification leads to the repurpose of ethanol for material production, compensating for the fuel market loss. Finally, the emergence of biorefineries to provide bio-based energy and feedstock reduces petroleum refining utilization in 2050, affecting the production of oil derivatives for energy purposes, and, hence, the GHG emissions associated with their production and combustion. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-021-03201-1.

Are there synergies in the decarbonization of aviation and shipping? An integrated perspective for the case of Brazil

“…(2018) analyzed the impact of the weakening of deforestation governance on the mitigation effort needed in other sectors of the Brazilian economy. Besides, de Oliveira et al. (2021) developed an integrated analysis of the role of bio-based petrochemicals in deep mitigation scenarios.…”

“…The Small BtL scenarios are variations of the IATA/ICAO IMO and B2C scenarios that have different cost assumptions for the BtL technology. Climate mitigation scenarios from the BLUES model typically show a large increase in BtL technologies between 2020 and 2050 ( Rochedo et al., 2018 ; de Oliveira et al., 2021 ; Müller-Casseres et al., 2021a ). This is partly due to cost assumptions for these technologies (e.g., the standard plant capacity in the model is 1.6 ML/day, with considerable gains of scale).…”

Are There Synergies in the Decarbonization of Aviation and Shipping? An Integrated Perspective for the Case of Brazil

“…The Small BtL scenarios are variations of the IATA/ICAO IMO and B2C scenarios that have different cost assumptions for the BtL technology. Climate mitigation scenarios from the BLUES model typically show a large increase in BtL technologies between 2020 and 2050(Rochedo et al, 2018;de Oliveira et al, 2021;…”