The Role of a PMI-Prediction Model in Evaluating Forensic Entomology Experimental Design, the Importance of Covariates, and the Utility of Response Variables for Estimating Time Since Death

Abstract

The most common forensic entomological application is the estimation of some portion of the time since death, or postmortem interval (PMI). To our knowledge, a PMI estimate is almost never accompanied by an associated probability. Statistical methods are now available for calculating confidence limits for an insect-based prediction of PMI for both succession and development data. In addition to it now being possible to employ these approaches in validation experiments and casework, it is also now possible to use the criterion of prediction performance to guide training experiments, i.e., to modify carrion insect development or succession experiment design in ways likely to improve the performance of PMI predictions using the resulting data. In this paper, we provide examples, derived from our research program on calculating PMI estimate probabilities, of how training data experiment design can influence the performance of a statistical model for PMI prediction.

The importance of forensic entomology in criminal investigations

“…Сви ови фактори указују на брзину развоја и тип исхране ларви појединих врста инсеката, а то су чињенице које ентомологу могу да пруже довољно информација на основу којих може да утврди и период од тренутка наступања смрти. Према Велсу и Ла Моту (Wells & LaMotte, 2017), развијени су компјутерски програми који симулирају развиће инсеката и на тај начин пружају податке ентомолозима о дужини развоја до одређене фазе. Све ово је усмерено како би се што прецизније одредио PMI, али значај инсеката није само у одређивању PMI, инсекти некрофаге имају много шири значај у ФЕ и могу као неми сведоци да пруже много информација о последњим тренуцима људи чију судбину истражујемо.…”

A review of the Forensic Entomology literature in the south‐eastern United States

“…A number of articles have focused on the refinement of the PMI for methods to be utilized in conjunction with entomological evidence (Schultz, 2007; Kiley Schoff, 2017; Swiger, 2007; Sutton, 2017; Wells & LaMotte, 2016; Wells, Lecheta, Moura, & Lamotte, 2014; Wells, 2018). State species records continue to be published with the aid of molecular techniques.…”

Nucleic Acids Persistence—Benefits and Limitations in Forensic Genetics

“…The most common forms of damage observed are two complementary groups of transitions: type 1 (adenine → guanine or thymine → cytosine) and type 2 (cytosine → thymine or guanine → adenine) [ 30 ]. Thus, the knowledge of the sequence of successive events is very important [ 29 ], and it is extremely important to learn about the degradation mechanisms of individual evidence materials occurring in the presence of harmful factors [ 31 ].…”