The role and deployment timing of direct air capture in Saudi Arabia’s net-zero transition

Abstract

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) has pledged to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2060. Direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) is critical for the country to meet its net-zero target given its reliance on fossil fuels and limited options for carbon dioxide removal (CDR). However, the role of DACCS in KSA’s national climate change mitigation has not been studied in the literature. In this study, we aim to understand the potential role of DACCS and the effect of its deployment timing in KSA’s transition toward its net-zero target using GCAM-KSA, which is a version of Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) with KSA split out as an individual region. We find that the annual DACCS CO2 sequestration in KSA reaches 0.28 to 0.33 Gt/yr by 2060 depending on its deployment timing. Early DACCS deployment, driven by its early and rapid cost reduction worldwide, could bring significant savings (~420 billion USD during 2020¬¬–2060) in the cost of climate change mitigation in KSA, approximately 17% reduction relative to delayed DACCS deployment. Our study suggests a strong role for KSA to proactively invest in the R&D of DACCS, initiate early DACCS deployment, and explore a broad suite of CDR options.