The risks from climate change to sovereign debt in Europe

Zenios, Stavros A.

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3891078

Cited by 13 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…The available evidence on the effects of climate change on sovereign creditworthiness is that high climate vulnerability and low resilience increase sovereign borrowing costs, especially for lower income countries (Beirne et al, 2021;. But rising costs are also found in developed countries (Painter 2020;Zenios 2021). IMF (2020) use OLS and ordered response models to regress past sovereign ratings on climate vulnerability, resilience, and the usual macroeconomic indicators for a panel of 67 countries between 1995 and 2017.…”

Section: Sovereign Ratings Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change and Sovereign Risk: A Regional Analysis for the Caribbean

Agarwala,

Burke,

Doherty-Bigara

et al. 2024

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Climate change is an existential threat to the world economy, with complex, evolving and nonlinear dynamics that remain a source of great uncertainty. There is a bourgeoning literature on the economic impact of climate change, but research on how climate change affects sovereign risks is limited. This paper provides forward-looking regional analysis of the effects of climate change on sovereign creditworthiness, probability of default and the cost of borrowing for the Caribbean economies. Our results indicate that there is substantial variation in the sensitivity of ratings to climate change across the region which is due to the non-linear nature of ratings. Our findings improve the identification and management of sovereign climate risk and provides a forward-looking assessment of how climate change could affect the cost of accessing international finance. As such, it leads to a suite of policy options for countries in the region.

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Section: Sovereign Ratings Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change and Sovereign Risk: A Regional Analysis for the Caribbean

Agarwala,

Burke,

Doherty-Bigara

et al. 2024

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“…The paper provides evidence that an increase in the significance of transition risk is a determinant of sovereign bond yields. Zenios (2021) studied the effects of climate change on the transparency of sovereign debt. The author looks at the disclosure of European Union (EU) members to climate change, studying international best practices, and describes the transmission flows.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Asian Perspectives on Sovereign Debt and Managing Fiscal Risks

2023

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The views in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI), its Advisory Council, ADB's Board or Governors, or the governments of ADB members. ADBI does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. ADBI uses proper ADB member names and abbreviations throughout and any variation or inaccuracy, including in citations and references, should be read as referring to the correct name.By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term "recognize," "country," or other geographical names in this publication, ADBI does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.Users are restricted from reselling, redistributing, or creating derivative works without the express, written consent of ADBI.ADB recognizes "China" as the People's Republic of China; and "Korea" as the Republic of Korea.

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“…the imminent climate crisis (Ruiz and Stupariu 2021). It is recommended that the risk of climate change become one of the risks taken into account in public debt management strategies (Zenios, 2021). According to the analysis of this issue so far, in European countries only a few sovereign debt management institutions decide to integrate aspects of climate change into their strategic and operational solutions (Boitan and Marchewka-Bartkowiak, 2022).…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sovereign Asset and Liability Management (SALM): Perspective of Pandemic COVID-19 Outbreak in Oecd Countries, Including Poland

Budzeń

Marchewka-Bartkowiak

2022

Studies in Logic, Grammar and Rhetoric

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The COVID-19 pandemic is global and affects all countries in the world. The difference in the financial impact assessment of its outbreak concerns, inter alia, the state of preparation of the public sector in the previous period. The article assumes that countries which coordinated the structure of sovereign assets and liabilities before 2020 were less exposed to the negative effects of financial risks resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. The study uses data and methodology of the International Monetary Fund and the authors’ measures dedicated to the public sector to assess the sovereign asset and liability management (SALM). As part of the results, the negative value of net worth and the national net welfare index for the studied countries, including Poland in the period before the pandemic crisis, were indicated. In addition, the level of the loans mismatch on the public balance sheet and the scale of the increase in financial risk in the first year of COVID-19 are presented. Conclusions of research make it possible to assess the impact of COVID-19 on Sovereign Asset and Liability Management.

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The risks from climate change to sovereign debt in Europe

Cited by 13 publications

References 26 publications

Climate Change and Sovereign Risk: A Regional Analysis for the Caribbean

Climate Change and Sovereign Risk: A Regional Analysis for the Caribbean

Asian Perspectives on Sovereign Debt and Managing Fiscal Risks

Sovereign Asset and Liability Management (SALM): Perspective of Pandemic COVID-19 Outbreak in Oecd Countries, Including Poland

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